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Picture
CHART IS HERE
Predicting faster growth, US GDP

January 26, 2023
1 minute read


  • Tonight fourth quarter US GDP will be announced,
  • US results have been coming out for the last week & we have 9 of the stocks under our coverage reporting so far.
  • Can those results help us to make a SHARPFOKUS bottom up prediction for the US total GDP (nominal)…? Yes we think they can.

Our track record
  • GDP is basically aggregate sales of everything in the economy.
  • So we can add together the sales of all the companies we cover & then calculate the year to year growth rate.
  • Historically, using only the 9 companies which have reported so far, there is a very close (visual) correlation between the sales growth & GDP growth.

Higher not lower
  • Both sales growth & GDP growth have slowed down in recent quarters, from a peak of about 17% in early 2021 (from a low base in 2020).
  • By the beginning of 2022 the growth rate for both was back at a single digits 9%. But in the third quarter growth picked up again despite higher interest rates.
  • Fourth quarter SHARPFOKUS sales growth is back at over 14%. That should mean a positive faster GDP growth tonight.. let’s see.

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