BBRI 4% yield forecast
BBRI.jk Current 4,670 Target 5,475 + 17%
11/18/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 12% -5% 6% -4%
41,496 46,457 44,051 46,806 44,709
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-61% -48% -53% -51% -48%
8,757 11,691 7,474 9,451 7,702
6,530 11,686 12,220 12,657 14,435
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
2,010 17,352 -32,641 16,762 10,769
-40,214 -35,372 26,170 13,899 -2,067
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities, assets billion rupiah
167,073 153,924 144,483 149,593 161,150
1,339,489 1,386,311 1,374,293 1,366,573 1,384,269
1,619,772 1,678,098 1,650,279 1,652,838 1,684,604
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
5,724 -2,557 3,162 -1,589 -1,944
-41,059 -30 0 26,994 -587
11/18/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 8%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -173% of market cap
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 12% -5% 6% -4%
41,496 46,457 44,051 46,806 44,709
- Sales declined -4% in the third quarter to 44,709 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 47,313 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-61% -48% -53% -51% -48%
8,757 11,691 7,474 9,451 7,702
6,530 11,686 12,220 12,657 14,435
- The cash cost ratio went from -51% to -48% profit from 12,657 to 14,435 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -50% now.
- We use a -51% cost ratio to predict a 13,782 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
2,010 17,352 -32,641 16,762 10,769
-40,214 -35,372 26,170 13,899 -2,067
- Free cashflow went from 30,661 to 8,703 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2,067 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,718 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2,067 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 20,723 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities, assets billion rupiah
167,073 153,924 144,483 149,593 161,150
1,339,489 1,386,311 1,374,293 1,366,573 1,384,269
1,619,772 1,678,098 1,650,279 1,652,838 1,684,604
- Cash increased 149,593 to 161,150 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,366,573 to 1,384,269 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,216,980 to -1,223,119 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -26,463 billion rupiah equity payout -554 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,166,690 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
5,724 -2,557 3,162 -1,589 -1,944
-41,059 -30 0 26,994 -587
- BBRI.jk (raised) -2,531 billion rupiah in the third quarter -1,944 billion rupiah liabilities -587 billion rupiah equity & will pay 27,016 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 707,057 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.41 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 82,891 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 5,475 rupiah.
