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BBRI, sharper again with strong sales growth
BBRI Current 4,840 Target 6,349 + 31%
26 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
1% 1% 4% 12% 8%
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-59% -59% -61% -48% -59%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters
14,099, 18,386, 11,546, 19,798, 14,393
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters
-1,066,263 -1,080,763 -1,172,416 -1,232,387 -1,229,810
Capital paid improved , a 31% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
44,850, 58,662, 23,326, 18,456, 21,618
26 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
1% 1% 4% 12% 8%
- Sales grew a strong 8% in the first quarter to 46,457 billion rupiah 7% above our 43,571 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 55,611 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-59% -59% -61% -48% -59%
- The cash cost ratio went from -48% to -59% profit from 6,530 to 11,686 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower provisions.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 14,537 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters
14,099, 18,386, 11,546, 19,798, 14,393
- Free cashflow went from 19,798 to 14,393 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -2,368 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 16,031 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -2,368 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 20,463 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters
-1,066,263 -1,080,763 -1,172,416 -1,232,387 -1,229,810
- Non cash assets growth declined 5% to -1% in the first quarter. Average growth is 5% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 3% to -1% in the first quarter. Average growth is 3% now.
- The sales to asset ratio improved 3.0% to 3.3% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 3.1% now.
Capital paid improved , a 31% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
44,850, 58,662, 23,326, 18,456, 21,618
- BBRI 29 quarter capital improved 18,456 to 21,618 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with a -3,162 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 55,502 in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 733,468 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 80,176 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 31% higher target price of 6,349 rupiah.