Weyerhaeuser (WY) Sales declined -20%
Current 34 Target 39 + 15%
Feb 11, 2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-6% 41% -4% -23% -20%
2,206 ; 3,112 ; 2,973 ; 2,276 ; 1,823 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
33% 39% 33% 21% 7%
416 ; 771 ; 788 ; 310 ; 11 million dollars
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
494 ; 957 ; 1,146 ; 562 ; 167 million dollars
-217 ; -87 ; -346 ; -97 ; -229 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,879 ; 1,205 ; 1,723 ; 1,920 ; 1,581 million dollars
6,885 ; 6,879 ; 6,764 ; 6,752 ; 6,591 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
150 ; 322 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 million dollars
574 ; 1,342 ; 274 ; 276 ; 277 million dollars
Feb 11, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -17%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 8% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 10% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -20% of market cap
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-6% 41% -4% -23% -20%
2,206 ; 3,112 ; 2,973 ; 2,276 ; 1,823 million dollars
- Sales declined -20% in the fourth quarter to 1,823 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,117 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
33% 39% 33% 21% 7%
416 ; 771 ; 788 ; 310 ; 11 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 21% to 7% net profit from 310 to 11 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 25% now.
- We use a 20% cash profit margin to predict a 197 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
494 ; 957 ; 1,146 ; 562 ; 167 million dollars
-217 ; -87 ; -346 ; -97 ; -229 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 465 to -62 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -229 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 518 million dollars now.
- We assume -136 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 283 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,879 ; 1,205 ; 1,723 ; 1,920 ; 1,581 million dollars
6,885 ; 6,879 ; 6,764 ; 6,752 ; 6,591 million dollars
- Cash declined 1,920 to 1,581 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 6,752 to 6,591 million dollars so net cash was down -4,832 to -5,010 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -770 million dollars equity payout -362 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -4,648 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
150 ; 322 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 million dollars
574 ; 1,342 ; 274 ; 276 ; 277 million dollars
- WY paid 277 million dollars in the fourth quarter 0 million dollars liabilities 277 million dollars equity, will pay 1,132 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 24,651 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.45 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 3% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,132 million dollars which means a 22 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 15% higher target price 39 dollars.
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