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WTON looking sharp as Cashflow turns positive & cash jumps
WTON Current 210 Target 414 +97%
March 16 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 51%
Last 5 quarters
70% -65% -4% 97% 51%
Costs up profit up on higher other income
Last 5 quarters
-93% -80% -91% -100% -102%
Cashflow positive again on working capital
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,234, -820, -116, -190, 896
Balance sheet lower leverage as cash jumped
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,576 -3,759 -3,223 -3,986 -3,741
Capital raised improved, a 97% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
397, 687, 242, -301, -100
March 16 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 51%
Last 5 quarters
70% -65% -4% 97% 51%
- Sales jumoed 51% in the fourth quarter to 1,835 billion rupiah 16% above our 1,584 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,257 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit up on higher other income
Last 5 quarters
-93% -80% -91% -100% -102%
- The cash cost ratio went from -100% to -102% profit from 16 to 102 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on higher other income.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use -92% cost ratio to predict a 166 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow positive again on working capital
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,234, -820, -116, -190, 896
- Free cashflow turned positive again from -190 to 896 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -63 billion rupiah investment spending & positive working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -58 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -46 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 111 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage as cash jumped
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,576 -3,759 -3,223 -3,986 -3,741
- Cash increased 1,071 to 1,739 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased 5,057 to 5,480 billion rupiah so net cash improved -3,986 to -3,741 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -55 billion rupiah equity payout -382 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,359 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved, a 97% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
397, 687, 242, -301, -100
- WTON 28 quarters capital raised improved -301 to -100 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -201 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 228 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,830 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s cheap at 0.20 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 328 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 97% higher target price of 414 rupiah.