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WTON cashflow positive

WTON.jk Current 206 Target 278 + 35%

11/17/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 49%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 22% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 38% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -259% of market cap

Sales jumped 68%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
97% 51% -58% 40% 68%
1,219 1,835 773 1,080 1,813
  • Sales jumped 68% in the third quarter to 1,813 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 25% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,182 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-94% -94% -95% -95% -94%
16 30 18 42 30
  • The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -94% profit from 42 to 30 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
  • We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a 69 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-122 932 -454 -171 251
-81 -63 -63 -18 -24
  • Free cashflow went positive from -189 to 227 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -24 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 97 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -24 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 87 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,071 1,739 770 755 664
5,057 5,480 4,921 4,950 5,323
  • Cash declined 755 to 664 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 4,950 to 5,323 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,195 to -4,659 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -347 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,312 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-543 201 452 -191 195
0 -0 0 17 0
  • WTON.jk paid 195 billion rupiah in the third quarter 195 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 347 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,795 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 28 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 347 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 35% higher target price 278 rupiah.
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