WTON cashflow less negative
WTON Current 240 Target 300 + 25%
Sep 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-4% 97% 51% -58% 40%
617 1,219 1,835 773 1,080
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -96% -96% -92% -92%
14 16 30 18 42
Cashflow lesd negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-110 -122 932 -454 -171
-21 -81 -63 -63 -18
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
731 1,071 1,739 770 755
3,954 5,057 5,480 4,921 4,950
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
464 -80 121 573 399
-470 -543 201 452 -191
26 0 -0 0 17
Sep 10, 2022
1 minute read
- WTON last 12 months sales growth 3.5X average + 75%
- WTON last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- WTON last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
- WTON latest net cash -201% of market cap
Sales grew 40%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-4% 97% 51% -58% 40%
617 1,219 1,835 773 1,080
- Sales grew 40% in the second quarter to 1,080 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 9% now.
- This brings the average to 32% growth.
- We predict average growth of 15% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,348 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -96% -96% -92% -92%
14 16 30 18 42
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -92% profit increased from 18 to 42 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use the latest -92% cost ratio to predict a 64 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lesd negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-110 -122 932 -454 -171
-21 -81 -63 -63 -18
- Free cashflow went less negative from -517 to -189 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -18 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -10 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -18 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 109 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
731 1,071 1,739 770 755
3,954 5,057 5,480 4,921 4,950
- Cash declined 770 to 755 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,921 to 4,950 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,151 to -4,195 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -32 billion rupiah equity payout -403 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,792 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
464 -80 121 573 399
-470 -543 201 452 -191
26 0 -0 0 17
- WTON cumulative capital worsened 573 to 399 billion rupiah with -191 & + 17 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 834 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,092 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.25 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 435 billion rupiah (vs -40 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 25% higher target price 300 rupiah.
