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WSKT, a 29% higher target price
Current 830 Target 1,071 +29%
November 22nd 2021
1 minute read
Sales up 18%
Costs 7 points higher
Cashflow bigger negative
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, more capital raised, a 29% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales up 18%
- Sales climbed 18% in the third quarter to 2,408 billion rupiah vs our 2,557 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 25% to bring sales to 5,120 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 7 points higher
- The cash cost ratio was 7 points higher at -88% in the third quarter giving a 112 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use the latest -88% cost ratio to predict a 444 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow bigger negative
- Free cashflow was a much bigger negative -3,163 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -816 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -594 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -316 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales & better margins gives a positive 311 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 3,641 to 2,075 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 89,734 to 89,934 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -86,093 to -87,859 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -150 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -87,039 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, more capital raised, a 29% higher target price
- WSKT capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -79,977 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 1-212 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -79,007 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 11,270 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 107 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 970 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. An 15 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price of 1,071 rupiah.