WSKT cashflow less negative
WSKT Current 472 Target 461 -2%
11/2/22
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 26%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
18% 112% -46% 22% 26%
2,408 5,099 2,748 3,342 4,213
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-91% -133% -129% -60% -92%
33 -1,905 -968 1,262 284
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
61 -1,529 -487 -266 -861
-427 -2,839 -1,213 -1,985 -888
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,075 13,166 10,384 11,103 10,728
105,540 103,602 102,120 97,144 99,906
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-79,977 -95,461 -94,381 -97,080 -98,151
-1,207 7,585 -2,624 2,698 1,072
-5 -7,900 -1,544 0 0
11/2/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 75%
- Last 12 months cash flow -74% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -134% of market cap
- Latest net cash -656% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 26%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
18% 112% -46% 22% 26%
2,408 5,099 2,748 3,342 4,213
- Sales grew seasonally 26% in the third quarter to 4,213 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 14% now.
- This brings the average to 28% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,118 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-91% -133% -129% -60% -92%
33 -1,905 -968 1,262 284
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -92% profit from 1,262 to 284 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -103% now.
- We use a -97% cost ratio to predict a 100 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
61 -1,529 -487 -266 -861
-427 -2,839 -1,213 -1,985 -888
- Free cashflow went less negative from -2,252 to -1,748 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -888 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,517 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -113 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 44 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,075 13,166 10,384 11,103 10,728
105,540 103,602 102,120 97,144 99,906
- Cash declined 11,103 to 10,728 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 97,144 to 99,906 billion rupiah so net cash was down -86,041 to -89,178 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -177 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -71,501 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-79,977 -95,461 -94,381 -97,080 -98,151
-1,207 7,585 -2,624 2,698 1,072
-5 -7,900 -1,544 0 0
- WSKT cumulative capital worsened -97,080 to -98,151 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -97,974 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,597 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.14 X assets with a 503 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 177 billion rupiah (vs -10,069 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 77 X valuation. A 75 X valuation gives a -2% lower target price 461 rupiah.
