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WSBP , a -8% lower target price
Current 124 Target 114 -8%
December 5th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 59%
Costs 47 points higher, improved loss on other income
Cashflow negative again
Balance sheet, slightly higher leverage
Valuation, a -8% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 59%
- Sales jumped 59% in the third quarter to 333 billion rupiah vs our 220 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 30% growth.
- We predict average growth of 31% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 908 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 47 points higher, improved loss on other income
- The cash cost ratio was 47 points higher at -149% in the third quarter but with other income gave a -125 billion rupiah improved net loss.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -126% now.
- We use lower -97% cost ratio to predict a -23 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative again
- Free cashflow was negative again at -360 billion rupiah in the third quarter with negative working capital & higher -88 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -46 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 30 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, slightly higher leverage
- Cash declined from 74 to 48 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 9,197 to 9,185 billion rupiah so net cash worsened slightly from -9,123 to -9,137 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -9,049 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -8% lower target price
- WSBP capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -8,064 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 333 billion rupiah new liabilities & will be -7,976 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,040 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.31 X assets with a 116 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 88 billion rupiah which means an 35 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -8% lower target price of 114 rupiah.