WOOD sales back down
WOOD Current 570 Target 487 -15%
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -41%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
35% 12% 37% 4% -41%
1,228 1,381 1,895 1,976 1,160
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -89% -89% -88% -90%
120 134 179 207 93
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-78 -90 12 312 -270
89 -65 -44 -22 -15
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
38 25 117 378 53
3,013 3,048 3,158 3,132 2,997
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,619 -1,810 -1,927 -1,925 -1,844
9 -207 -98 2 31
0 16 -19 0 50
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
- Latest net cash -81% of market cap
Sales declined -41%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
35% 12% 37% 4% -41%
1,228 1,381 1,895 1,976 1,160
- Sales declined -41% in the second quarter to 1,160 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,280 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-88% -89% -89% -88% -90%
120 134 179 207 93
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -90% profit from 207 to 93 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -89% now.
- We use the average -89% cost ratio to predict a 116 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-78 -90 12 312 -270
89 -65 -44 -22 -15
- Free cashflow went negative from 291 to -284 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -15 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -45 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -27 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 111 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
38 25 117 378 53
3,013 3,048 3,158 3,132 2,997
- Cash declined 378 to 53 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,132 to 2,997 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,754 to -2,944 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -443 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,501 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,619 -1,810 -1,927 -1,925 -1,844
9 -207 -98 2 31
0 16 -19 0 50
- WOOD cumulative capital improved -1,925 to -1,844 billion rupiah with + 31 & + 50 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,402 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,627 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.53 X assets with a 15 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 443 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a -15% lower target price 487 rupiah.
