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WOOD not good

WOOD.jk Current 384 Target 352 -8%

11/30/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth -45%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -14% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -13% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -134% of market cap
​
Sales declined -35%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 37% 4% -41% -35%
1,381 1,895 1,976 1,160 759
  • Sales declined -35% in the third quarter to 759 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to -9% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 845 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
11% 11% 12% 10% 4%
134 179 207 93 1
  • The cash margin went from 10% to 4% profit from 93 to 1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 9% now.
  • We use a 9% cash margin to predict a 51 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-90 12 312 -270 -317
-65 -44 -22 -15 0
  • Free cashflow went from -284 to -317 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -86 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -7 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 70 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
25 117 378 53 36
3,048 3,158 3,132 2,997 3,303
  • Cash declined 53 to 36 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 2,997 to 3,303 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,944 to -3,267 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -280 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,987 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-207 -98 2 31 -303
16 -19 0 50 18
  • WOOD.jk (raised) -285 billion rupiah in the third quarter -303 billion rupiah liabilities 18 billion rupiah equity but will pay 280 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 2,443 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.34 X assets with a 26 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 280 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a -8% lower target price 352 rupiah.
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