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Picture

WOMF.jk Sales grew 4%

Picture
Current 268 Target 432 + 61%

Feb 20, 2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 4%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -19% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -23% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -391% of market cap

Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
8% 1% -4% 4% 4%
423 ; 425 ; 406 ; 423 ; 442 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter to 442 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 485 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
26% 26% 21% 26% 23%
35 ; 25 ; 56 ; 43 ; 75 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 26% to 23% net profit from 43 to 75 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 24% now.
  • We use a 24% cash profit margin to predict a 64 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-88 ; 22 ; 45 ; -51 ; -129 billion rupiah
-6 ; -13 ; -13 ; -19 ; -21 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -70 to -150 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -21 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -45 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -17 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 94 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
450 ; 388 ; 540 ; 629 ; 485 billion rupiah
3,817 ; 3,803 ; 3,915 ; 4,101 ; 4,131 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 629 to 485 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 4,101 to 4,131 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,472 to -3,646 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -69 billion rupiah equity payout -307 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,339 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-293 ; 72 ; -312 ; -1 ; -6 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 32 ; 1 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • WOMF.jk (raised) -6 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter -6 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 376 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 933 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.17 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 7% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 376 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 61% higher target price 432 rupiah.
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