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WOMF less dull as cashflow turns slightly positive
WOMF Current 244 Target 384 + 58%
Jun 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-13% -2% 4% 8% 1%
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -76% -76% -74% -74%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
268, -10, -88, -99, 8
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,187 -3,177 -3,284 -3,367 -3,415
Capital paid improved , a 58% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,272, 3,423, 3,268, 2,970, 3,041
Jun 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-13% -2% 4% 8% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 425 billion rupiah 2% above our 419 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 496 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -76% -76% -74% -74%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -74% profit declined from 35 to 25 billion rupiah in the first quarter on higher provisions.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 51 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
268, -10, -88, -99, 8
- Free cashflow went positive from -99 to 8 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -13 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -47 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -13 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 113 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,187 -3,177 -3,284 -3,367 -3,415
- Cash declined 450 to 388 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,817 to 3,803 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,367 to -3,415 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -56 billion rupiah equity payout -376 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,039 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 58% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,272, 3,423, 3,268, 2,970, 3,041
- WOMF 17 quarter capital paid improved 2,970 to 3,041 billion rupiah in the first quarter with + 70 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will be 3,472 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 849 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.2 X assets with an 11 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 432 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 58% higher target price 384 dollars.
