WOMF at 3X cashflow
WOMF Current 288 Target 393 + 36%
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 4% 8% 1% -4%
375 391 423 425 406
Costs up provisions down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-76% -76% -74% -74% -79%
47 51 59 69 15
25 26 35 25 56
Cashflow jumped
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
5 -71 -92 21 39
-16 -17 -7 -13 -14
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
184 251 450 388 540
3,360 3,535 3,817 3,803 3,915
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
3,423 3,268 2,970 3,041 2,914
151 -155 -298 70 -126
0 0 0 0 0
Aug 19, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -15% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -51% of market cap
- Latest net cash -337% of market cap
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 4% 8% 1% -4%
375 391 423 425 406
- Sales declined -4% in the second quarter to 406 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 503 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up provisions down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-76% -76% -74% -74% -79%
47 51 59 69 15
25 26 35 25 56
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -79% provisions from 69 to 15 billion rupiah profit from 25 to 56 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio 15 provisions to predict a 92 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow jumped
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
5 -71 -92 21 39
-16 -17 -7 -13 -14
- Free cashflow jumped from 8 to 26 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -14 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -38 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -13 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 98 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
184 251 450 388 540
3,360 3,535 3,817 3,803 3,915
- Cash increased 388 to 540 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,803 to 3,915 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,415 to -3,375 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -100 billion rupiah equity payout -16 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,067 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
3,423 3,268 2,970 3,041 2,914
151 -155 -298 70 -126
0 0 0 0 0
- WOMF cumulative capital worsened 3,041 to 2,914 billion rupiah with -126 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 3,030 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,003 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 10% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 342 billion rupiah which means a 2.9 X valuation. A 4.0 X valuation gives a 36% higher target price 393 rupiah.
