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Other stocks here

WMUU, a -19% lower target price
Current 155 Target 126 -19%

December 29th 2021
1 minute read
​
Sales grew 24%
  • Sales grew 24% in the third quarter to 881 billion rupiah & are up 184% from a year ago!
  • This brings the quarterly average to 24% growth.
  • We predict more modest average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,168 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Costs up 1 point, profit up
  • The cash cost ratio went up 1 point from -92% to -93% profit from 49 to 56 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
  • We use the latest -93% cost ratio to predict a 77 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.​

​BUT…Cashflow more negative with high investment
  • Free cashflow went from -84 to -161 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -186 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -115 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -129 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -45 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Balance sheet higher leverage
  • Cash increased 31 to 54 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 740 to 946 billion rupiahso net cash worsened -709 to -892 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 214 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,107 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Valuation, expensive, a -19% lower target price
  • WMUU capital from the last 19 quarters worsened -1,366 to -1,550 billion rupiah in the third quarter​ with 185 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -2 billion rupiah equity payment & will be -1,660 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 9,263 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.57 X assets with a 0% yield.
  • Our operating cashflow forecast is 302 billion rupiah which means an 31 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -19% lower target price of 126 rupiah.
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