WMT more capital paid
Current 139 Target 148 + 6%
Mar 19, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
9% -7% 8% -0% 7%
152,871 ; 141,569 ; 152,859 ; 152,813 ; 164,048 million dollars
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
5% 5% 5% 3% 4%
3,633 ; 2,103 ; 5,147 ; -1,767 ; 5,809 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
7,890 ; -3,758 ; 12,998 ; 6,458 ; 13,403 million dollars
-4,485 ; -4,558 ; -4,026 ; -4,381 ; -4,757 million dollars
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
14,760 ; 11,817 ; 13,923 ; 11,587 ; 8,885 million dollars
152,969 ; 160,542 ; 161,612 ; 167,533 ; 159,703 million dollars
More capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
375 ; -9,141 ; 1,758 ; -305 ; 7,488 million dollars
4,340 ; 3,826 ; 4,957 ; 4,486 ; 3,970 million dollars
Mar 19, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 7%, vs 2019 +17%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -40% of market cap
- 1.53X assets with a 20 years payback
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
9% -7% 8% -0% 7%
152,871 ; 141,569 ; 152,859 ; 152,813 ; 164,048 million dollars
- Sales grew 7% in the fourth quarter to 164,048 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 183,077 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
5% 5% 5% 3% 4%
3,633 ; 2,103 ; 5,147 ; -1,767 ; 5,809 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 3% to 4% net profit from -1,767 to 5,809 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 4% now.
- We use a 4% cash profit margin to predict a 4,156 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
7,890 ; -3,758 ; 12,998 ; 6,458 ; 13,403 million dollars
-4,485 ; -4,558 ; -4,026 ; -4,381 ; -4,757 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 2,077 to 8,646 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -4,757 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,845 million dollars now.
- We assume -4,322 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,942 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
14,760 ; 11,817 ; 13,923 ; 11,587 ; 8,885 million dollars
152,969 ; 160,542 ; 161,612 ; 167,533 ; 159,703 million dollars
- Cash declined 11,587 to 8,885 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 167,533 to 159,703 million dollars so net cash was up -155,946 to -150,818 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -14,059 million dollars equity payout + 2,291 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -153,109 million dollars in 12 months time.
More capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
375 ; -9,141 ; 1,758 ; -305 ; 7,488 million dollars
4,340 ; 3,826 ; 4,957 ; 4,486 ; 3,970 million dollars
- WMT paid 11,458 million dollars in the fourth quarter 7,488 million dollars liabilities 3,970 million dollars equity, will pay 11,769 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 375,934 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.53 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 4% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 11,769 million dollars which means a 32 X valuation. A 34 X valuation gives a 6% higher target price 148 dollars.