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Picture
WIRG.jk Cashflow less negative

Current 117 Target 47 -60%

1/6/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 272%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -19% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -29% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -2% of market cap

Sales grew 59%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-7% 0% 101% 16% 59%
150 ; 150 ; 301 ; 350 ; 557 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 59% in the third quarter to 557 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 4% now.
  • This brings the average to 44% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 585 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
4% 4% 6% 4% 3%
4 ; 4 ; 15 ; 11 ; 11 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 4% to 3% profit was flat at 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 4% now.
  • We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 22 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
29 ; 29 ; -2 ; -24 ; -24 billion rupiah
-10 ; -10 ; -0 ; -153 ; -87 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -177 to -111 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -87 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -68 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -10 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 14 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
0 ; 19 ; 15 ; 253 ; 138 billion rupiah
0 ; 97 ; 134 ; 150 ; 168 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 253 to 138 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 150 to 168 billion rupiah so net cash was down 103 to -30 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -31 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 26 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
7 ; 7 ; 1 ; 1 ; 1 billion rupiah
5 ; 5 ; 0 ; -416 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • WIRG.jk paid 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 31 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 1,396 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.68 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 56 billion rupiah which means a 25 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -60% lower target price 47 rupiah.
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