WIRG negative cashflow
WIRG Current 515 Target 396 -23%
September 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -7% 0% 101% 16%
162 150 150 301 350
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -96% -96% -94% -96%
8 4 4 15 10
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-23 29 29 -2 -24
0 -10 -10 -0 -153
Net cash up from IPO
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
0 0 19 15 253
0 0 97 134 161
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-108 -95 -82 -81 -496
-4 7 7 1 1
-16 5 5 0 -416
September 22, 2022
1 minute read
- WIRG last 12 months sales growth 6X average + 116%
- WIRG last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- WIRG last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
- WIRG latest net cash + 1% of market cap
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -7% 0% 101% 16%
162 150 150 301 350
- Sales grew 16% in the second quarter to 350 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 0 now.
- This brings the average to 27% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 410 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -96% -96% -94% -96%
8 4 4 15 10
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -96% profit from 15 to 10 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the latest -96% cost ratio to predict a 12 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-23 29 29 -2 -24
0 -10 -10 -0 -153
- Free cashflow went from -2 to -178 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -153 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -36 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -24 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -9 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up from IPO
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
0 0 19 15 253
0 0 97 134 161
- Cash increased 15 to 253 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 134 to 161 billion rupiah so net cash was up -119 to 92 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 37 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 55 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-108 -95 -82 -81 -496
-4 7 7 1 1
-16 5 5 0 -416
- WIRG cumulative capital worsened -81 to -496 billion rupiah with + 1 & -416 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -534 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,138 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 7.4 X assets with a -13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m sales forecast is 1,572 billion rupiah (vs 951 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a -23% lower target price 396 rupiah.
