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WINS a dull result, but more capital paid & very cheap
WINS Current 160 Target 212 + 33%
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-6.9% -3.2% 2.2% 19.8% -13%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-67% -67% -63% -76% -90%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
4.6, 0.2, 9.1, 11.7, -6.4
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-74.0, -69.1, -58.0, -32, -40
Capital paid improved , a 33% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
133, 132.7, 142.6, 146.3, 147.8
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-6.9% -3.2% 2.2% 19.8% -13%
- Sales declined -13.2% in the first quarter to 10.5 million dollars -12% below our 12.0 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12.3 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-67% -67% -63% -76% -90%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -90% profit from -0.4 to -2.1 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use the average -74% cost ratio to predict a 0.1 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
4.6, 0.2, 9.1, 11.7, -6.4
- Free cashflow went from 11.7 to -6.4 million dollars in the first quarter with high -8.0 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3.6 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -0.4 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 2.8 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-74.0, -69.1, -58.0, -32, -40
- Cash declined 9.6 to 1.8 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 42.0 to 41.9 million dollars so net cash worsened -32 to -40 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -0.1 million dollars equity payout -7.8 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -30 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 33% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
133, 132.7, 142.6, 146.3, 147.8
- WINS 29 quarter capital paid improved 146.3 to 147.8 million dollars in the first quarter with a -2.1 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 156 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 48 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 11 million dollars which means an 5 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 33% higher target price 212 rupiah.