WIKA sales jumped
WIKA Current 1,065 Target 1,114 + 5%
30 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-28% 72% 26% -49% 27%
2,843 4,881 6,162 3,163 4,021
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-100% -101% -99% -98% -98%
31 50 28 10 3
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-1,740 -895 3,042 -2,353 -2,670
-575 -3,209 -94 -1,518 -1,428
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
7,567 6,029 6,984 4,340 3,285
45,807 51,529 51,951 51,724 54,813
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-29,318 -31,881 -29,916 -31,144 -34,185
-3,507 -2,576 1,980 -1,228 -3,057
14 13 -14 0 16
30 Aug 2022
1 minute read
- WIKA last 12 months sales growth 2X average + 41%
- WIKA last 12 months cash flow -96% of market cap
- WIKA last 12 months Capital -51% of market cap
- WIKA latest net cash -539% of market cap
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-28% 72% 26% -49% 27%
2,843 4,881 6,162 3,163 4,021
- Sales jumped 27% in the second quarter to 4,021 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 15% now.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 14% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,707 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-100% -101% -99% -98% -98%
31 50 28 10 3
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -98% profit declined from 10 to 3 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -99% now.
- We use a -94% cost ratio to predict a 260 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-1,740 -895 3,042 -2,353 -2,670
-575 -3,209 -94 -1,518 -1,428
- Free cashflow went more negative from -3,871 to -4,098 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1,428 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,281 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -94 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 250 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
7,567 6,029 6,984 4,340 3,285
45,807 51,529 51,951 51,724 54,813
- Cash declined 4,340 to 3,285 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 51,724 to 54,813 billion rupiah so net cash was down -47,384 to -51,528 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -106 billion rupiah equity payout -892 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -50,636 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-29,318 -31,881 -29,916 -31,144 -34,185
-3,507 -2,576 1,980 -1,228 -3,057
14 13 -14 0 16
- WIKA cumulative capital worsened -31,144 to -34,185 billion rupiah with -3,057 & + 16 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -33,186 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 9,552 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a 69 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 999 billion rupiah (vs -9,125 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 9.6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 1,114 rupiah.
