WIKA cashflow less negative
WIKA.jk Current 910 Target 886 -3%
11/17/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 39%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
72% 26% -49% 27% 39%
4,881 6,162 3,163 4,021 5,608
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-92% -93% -93% -94% -95%
50 28 10 3 -7
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-895 3,042 -2,353 -2,670 -875
-3,209 -94 -1,518 -1,428 -63
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6,029 6,984 4,340 3,285 3,261
51,529 51,951 51,724 54,813 56,758
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2,576 1,980 -1,228 -3,057 -913
13 -14 0 16 0
11/17/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 15%
- Last 12 months cash flow -73% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -39% of market cap
- Latest net cash -655% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 39%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
72% 26% -49% 27% 39%
4,881 6,162 3,163 4,021 5,608
- Sales grew seasonally 39% in the third quarter to 5,608 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,284 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-92% -93% -93% -94% -95%
50 28 10 3 -7
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -95% profit from 3 to -7 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a -94% cost ratio to predict a 154 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-895 3,042 -2,353 -2,670 -875
-3,209 -94 -1,518 -1,428 -63
- Free cashflow went less negative from -4,098 to -938 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -63 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,490 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -63 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 284 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
6,029 6,984 4,340 3,285 3,261
51,529 51,951 51,724 54,813 56,758
- Cash declined 3,285 to 3,261 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 54,813 to 56,758 billion rupiah so net cash was down -51,528 to -53,497 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,136 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -52,361 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2,576 1,980 -1,228 -3,057 -913
13 -14 0 16 0
- WIKA.jk raised -913 billion rupiah in the third quarter -913 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 1,136 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 8,162 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 68 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,136 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price 886 rupiah.
