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WIKA less dull as Cashflow turns positive again
WIKA Current 1,110 Target 1,627 +47%
March 15 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 26%
Last 5 quarters
89% -36% -28% 72% 26%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -99% -100% -101% -99%
Cashflow positive on working capital
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,427, -5,299, -2,300, -4,056, 2,969
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-36,500 -38,679 -38,240 -45,500 -44,967
Capital raised improved, a 47% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-27,320 -24,036 -27,528 -30,091 -28,125
March 15 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 26%
Last 5 quarters
89% -36% -28% 72% 26%
- Sales jumped 26% in the fourth quarter to 6,162 billion rupiah 5% above our 5,857 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,428 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-94% -99% -100% -101% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -101% to -99% profit from 50 to 28 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter from higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use a lower -94% cost ratio as sales rise to predict a 602 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow positive on working capital
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,427, -5,299, -2,300, -4,056, 2,969
- Free cashflow turned positive from -4,056 to 2,969 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -94 billion rupiah investment spending & positive working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -2,171 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -94 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 463 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-36,500 -38,679 -38,240 -45,500 -44,967
- Cash increased 6,029 to 6,984 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities increased slightly 51,529 to 51,951 billion rupiah so net cash improved -45,500 to -44,967 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -201 billion rupiah equity payout -1,258 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -43,709 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved, a 47% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-27,320 -24,036 -27,528 -30,091 -28,125
- WIKA 28 quarters capital raised improved -30,091 to -28,125 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -1,980 billion rupiah liabilities -21 billion rupiah equity payments & will be -26,666 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 9,955 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a low 0.14 X assets with a 43 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,460 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 47% higher target price of 1,627 rupiah.