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WIIM looking sharp with a 16% forecast yield
WIIM Current 484 Target 1,144 + 136%
May 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters
-5% 6% 21% 13% -8%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -93% -92% -90% -93%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
10, 97, 22, 26, -2
Balance sheet net cash turned positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
81, 70, 6, -51, 88
Capital paid flat , a 136% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
353 353 406 406 406
May 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -8%
Last 5 quarters
-5% 6% 21% 13% -8%
- Sales declined seasonally -8% in the first quarter to 758 billion rupiah -5% below our 801 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 834 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -93% -92% -90% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -90% to -93% profit from 68 to 38 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 68 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
10, 97, 22, 26, -2
- Free cashflow went from 26 to -2 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 36 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 67 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash turned positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
81, 70, 6, -51, 88
- Cash declined 522 to 516 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 573 to 428 billion rupiah so net cash turned positive -51 to 88 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -165 billion rupiah equity payout -560 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 190 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat , a 136% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
353 353 406 406 406
- WIIM 29 quarter capital paid was flat at 406 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 672 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,016 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 16% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 267 billion rupiah which means an 4 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 136% higher target price 1,144 rupiah.