WIIM 17% yield forecast!
WIIM Current 895 Target 1,356 + 52%
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
21% 13% -8% 15% 18%
731 826 758 869 1,022
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-92% -90% -93% -93% -90%
46 68 38 44 88
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
36 35 -7 132 260
-15 -9 0 -2 -11
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
496 522 516 646 833
490 573 428 494 740
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
403 403 403 403 465
10 0 0 0 0
43 0 0 0 62
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
- WIIM last 12 months sales growth + 40%
- WIIM last 12 months cash flow + 21% of market cap
- WIIM last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- WIIM latest net cash + 5% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
21% 13% -8% 15% 18%
731 826 758 869 1,022
- Sales grew 18% in the third quarter to 1,022 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -5% now.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,164 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-92% -90% -93% -93% -90%
46 68 38 44 88
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -90% profit from 44 to 88 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use the average -92% cost ratio to predict a 86 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
36 35 -7 132 260
-15 -9 0 -2 -11
- Free cashflow went from 130 to 249 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -11 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 100 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 89 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
496 522 516 646 833
490 573 428 494 740
- Cash increased 646 to 833 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 494 to 740 billion rupiah so net cash was down 152 to 93 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -322 billion rupiah equity -35 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 128 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
403 403 403 403 465
10 0 0 0 0
43 0 0 0 62
- WIIM cumulative capital improved 403 to 465 billion rupiah with 0 & + 62 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 821 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,879 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.88 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 17% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 356 billion rupiah (vs 403 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 1,356 rupiah.
