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Picture

WEHA looking sharp with high capital paid

WEHA Current 200 Target 341 + 71%

Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
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Sales declined seasonally -6%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 9% -6% 85% -6%
  • Sales declined seasonally -6% in the first quarter to 33 billion rupiah, 78% higher than a year ago.
  • This brings the average to 20% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 42 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs down profit doubled
Last 5 quarters
-107% -106% -94% -81% -79%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -79% profit from 1 to 2 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
  • We use the latest -79% cost ratio to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, 1, 3, 3, 4
  • Free cashflow went from 3 to 4 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 2 billion rupiah investment gains.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 8 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
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Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-101 -100 -97 -110 -105
  • Cash increased 3.6 to 4.4 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 114 to 109 billion rupiah so net cash improved -110 to -105 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -20 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -74 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital paid improved , a 71% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
161, 161, 161, 165, 165
  • WEHA 17 quarter capital paid was flat at 165 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 185 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 177 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.85 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 30 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 71% higher target price 341 rupiah.
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