WEHA sharp with rising cashflow & a 6% yield forecast
WEHA Current 172 Target 357 + 107%
Jul 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 30%
Last 5 quarters
9% -6% 85% -6% 30%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-106% -94% -81% -79% -74%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, 3, 8, 4, 9
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-100 -97 -110 -105 -97
Capital paid improved , a 107% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
37, 39, 46, 49, 53
Jul 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 30%
Last 5 quarters
9% -6% 85% -6% 30%
- Sales jumped 30% in the second quarter to 43 billion rupiah 18% above our 37 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 26% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 56 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-106% -94% -81% -79% -74%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -74% profit from 2 to 5 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use the latest -74% cost ratio to predict a 8 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, 3, 8, 4, 9
- Free cashflow went from 4 to 9 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 12 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-100 -97 -110 -105 -97
- Cash increased 4 to 10 billion rupiah in the second quarter
- Liabilities declined 109 to 106 billion rupiah so net cash improved -105 to -97 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -8 billion rupiah equity payout -20 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -60 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 107% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
37, 39, 46, 49, 53
- WEHA 18 quarter capital paid improved 49 to 53 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 4 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be 81 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 152 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.69 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 45 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 107% higher target price 357 rupiah.
