WEHA at 4X cashflow
WEHA Current 92 Target 157 + 71%
October 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-6% 85% -6% 30% 8%
19 35 33 43 47
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-94% -81% -79% -74% -75%
-4 1 2 5 6
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
0 11 2 11 15
3 -3 2 -2 -6
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3 4 4 10 62
100 114 109 106 92
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
39 46 49 53 9
2 7 3 4 24
0 0 0 0 -68
October 18, 2022
1 minute read
- WEHA last 12 months sales growth + 143%
- WEHA last 12 months cash flow + 22% of market cap
- WEHA last 12 months Capital -23% of market cap
- WEHA latest net cash -22% of market cap
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-6% 85% -6% 30% 8%
19 35 33 43 47
- Sales grew 8% in the third quarter to 47 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -9% now.
- This brings the average to 29% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 58 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-94% -81% -79% -74% -75%
-4 1 2 5 6
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -75% profit from 5 to 6 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the latest -75% cost ratio to predict a 9 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
0 11 2 11 15
3 -3 2 -2 -6
- Free cashflow went from 9 to 8 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -6 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 10 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
3 4 4 10 62
100 114 109 106 92
- Cash increased 10 to 62 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 106 to 92 billion rupiah so net cash was up -97 to -30 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -3 billion rupiah equity -17 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 5 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
39 46 49 53 9
2 7 3 4 24
0 0 0 0 -68
- WEHA cumulative capital worsened 53 to 9 billion rupiah with + 24 & -68 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be 29 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 134 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.46 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 38 billion rupiah (vs 29 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 71% higher target price 157 rupiah.
