WEHA looking sharp with high capital paid
WEHA Current 200 Target 341 + 71%
Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -6%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 9% -6% 85% -6%
Costs down profit doubled
Last 5 quarters
-107% -106% -94% -81% -79%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, 1, 3, 3, 4
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-101 -100 -97 -110 -105
Capital paid improved , a 71% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
161, 161, 161, 165, 165
Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -6%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 9% -6% 85% -6%
- Sales declined seasonally -6% in the first quarter to 33 billion rupiah, 78% higher than a year ago.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 42 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit doubled
Last 5 quarters
-107% -106% -94% -81% -79%
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -79% profit from 1 to 2 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the latest -79% cost ratio to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1, 1, 3, 3, 4
- Free cashflow went from 3 to 4 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 2 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 8 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-101 -100 -97 -110 -105
- Cash increased 3.6 to 4.4 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 114 to 109 billion rupiah so net cash improved -110 to -105 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -20 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -74 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 71% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
161, 161, 161, 165, 165
- WEHA 17 quarter capital paid was flat at 165 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 185 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 177 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.85 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 30 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 71% higher target price 341 rupiah.