WEGE cashflow positive again
Current 133 Target 174 + 31%
Mar 9, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 41%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-34% -35% 52% -31% 41%
719 ; 470 ; 714 ; 490 ; 692 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
12% 12% 8% 11% 26%
65 ; 30 ; 35 ; 28 ; 138 billion rupiah
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,052 ; -967 ; -173 ; -128 ; 611 billion rupiah
-96 ; 43 ; 3 ; 39 ; -2 billion rupiah
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,468 ; 587 ; 525 ; 428 ; 916 billion rupiah
3,592 ; 3,049 ; 3,320 ; 2,861 ; 2,884 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
259 ; -44 ; -151 ; -14 ; 121 billion rupiah
-0 ; 0 ; 43 ; 22 ; 0 billion rupiah
Mar 9, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -4%
- Last 12 months cash flow -45% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -2% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -155% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 41%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
-34% -35% 52% -31% 41%
719 ; 470 ; 714 ; 490 ; 692 billion rupiah
- Sales grew seasonally 41% in the fourth quarter to 692 billion rupiah .
- This brings the quarterly average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 867 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
12% 12% 8% 11% 26%
65 ; 30 ; 35 ; 28 ; 138 billion rupiah
- The cash profit margin went from 11% to 26% net profit from 28 to 138 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with non cash gains.
- The average margin is at 14% now.
- We use a 10% cash profit margin to predict a 47 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
1,052 ; -967 ; -173 ; -128 ; 611 billion rupiah
-96 ; 43 ; 3 ; 39 ; -2 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -89 to 609 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -144 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 69 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,468 ; 587 ; 525 ; 428 ; 916 billion rupiah
3,592 ; 3,049 ; 3,320 ; 2,861 ; 2,884 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 428 to 916 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,861 to 2,884 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,433 to -1,968 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -47 billion rupiah equity payout -230 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,738 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
259 ; -44 ; -151 ; -14 ; 121 billion rupiah
-0 ; 0 ; 43 ; 22 ; 0 billion rupiah
- WEGE.jk paid 121 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 121 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 277 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 1,273 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.24 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 4% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 277 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 31% higher target price 174 rupiah.
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