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VICI, cashflow HIGHER Current 496 Target 531 7%

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January 16 2022
1 minute read

Sales grew 12%

• Sales grew 12% in the third quarter to 300 billion rupiah which is up 17% from a year ago.
• This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
• We predict average growth of another 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 350 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs down, profit up

• The cash cost ratio went from -103% to -67% profit from -15 to 92 billion rupiah in the third quarter on higher other income.
• The Cashflow cost ratio is at -79% now.
• We use a higher -85% cost ratio to predict a 44 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow jumped higher

• Free cashflow jumped from 19 to 52 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a positive 2 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 15 billion rupiah now.
• We assume -7 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 44 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet lower leverage

• Cash (overdraft) improved -96 to -51 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities declined 269 to 252 billion rupiah
• so net cash improved -364 to -303 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -49 billion rupiah equity payout -47 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -189 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

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Valuation, a 7% higher target price

• VICI capital raised from the last 11 quarters improved -110 to -108 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -2 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be almost positive -13 billion rupiah in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 3,327 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.23 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 1% yield.
• Our free cashflow forecast is 178 billion rupiah which means an 19 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price of 531 rupiah.

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