V Sales grew 2%
Current 231 Target 247 + 7%
1/28/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
8% 2% 1% 7% 2%
7,059 ; 7,189 ; 7,275 ; 7,787 ; 7,936 million dollars
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters net margin, net profit
56% 51% 47% 51% 53%
3,959 ; 3,647 ; 3,411 ; 3,940 ; 4,179 million dollars
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,232 ; 3,489 ; 5,252 ; 5,876 ; 4,171 million dollars
-547 ; -1,785 ; -2,063 ; 107 ; -510 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
14,720 ; 12,299 ; 14,047 ; 15,689 ; 13,334 million dollars
45,735 ; 45,819 ; 49,927 ; 49,920 ; 48,463 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; -300 ; -2,918 ; 1,000 ; 2,250 million dollars
4,968 ; 3,699 ; 3,207 ; 3,040 ; 4,097 million dollars
Current 231 Target 247 + 7%
1/28/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 12%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -7% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
8% 2% 1% 7% 2%
7,059 ; 7,189 ; 7,275 ; 7,787 ; 7,936 million dollars
- Sales grew 2% in the fourth quarter to 7,936 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 637% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 8,669 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters net margin, net profit
56% 51% 47% 51% 53%
3,959 ; 3,647 ; 3,411 ; 3,940 ; 4,179 million dollars
- The net profit margin went from 51% to 53% profit from 3,940 to 4,179 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 50% now.
- We use a 54% net profit margin to predict a 4,812 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,232 ; 3,489 ; 5,252 ; 5,876 ; 4,171 million dollars
-547 ; -1,785 ; -2,063 ; 107 ; -510 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 5,983 to 3,661 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -510 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,634 million dollars now.
- We assume -1,063 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 4,353 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
14,720 ; 12,299 ; 14,047 ; 15,689 ; 13,334 million dollars
45,735 ; 45,819 ; 49,927 ; 49,920 ; 48,463 million dollars
- Cash declined 15,689 to 13,334 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 49,920 to 48,463 million dollars so net cash was down -34,231 to -35,129 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -10,830 million dollars equity payout -6,580 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -28,549 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; -300 ; -2,918 ; 1,000 ; 2,250 million dollars
4,968 ; 3,699 ; 3,207 ; 3,040 ; 4,097 million dollars
- V paid 6,347 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2,250 million dollars liabilities 4,097 million dollars equity, will pay 17,410 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 490,102 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 5.70 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 17,410 million dollars which means a 28 X valuation. A 30 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price 247 dollars.