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UNTR looking very sharp as sales & cashflow surge to records

UNTR Current 28,900 Target 59,365 + 105%

28 Apr 2022
1 minute read

Sales surged 29%
Last 5 quarters
30% 8% 6% 5% 29%
  • Sales surged 29% in the first quarter to 27,979 billion rupiah 32% above our 21,205 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 12% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 35,319 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
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Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-77% -74% -73% -79% -76%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -76% profit from 2,542 to 4,718 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
  • We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 6,658 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
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Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,100, 5,286, 6,374, 5,525, 7,062
  • Free cashflow went from 5,525 to 7,062 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1,620 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,062 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -1,620 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 6,900 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
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Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-12,000, -11,975, -9,600, -7,416, -7,258
  • Cash increased 33,322 to 35,716 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 40,738 to 42,974 billion rupiah so net cash improved -7,416 to -7,258 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -7,090 billion rupiah equity payout -7,971 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be positive 11,020 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital paid improved , a 105% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12,283, 15,321, 16,009, 18,611, 21,493
  • UNTR 29 quarters capital paid improved 18,611 to 21,493 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with -2,825 billion rupiah liabilities -58 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be 35,791 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 107,801 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.84 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 24,604 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation.
  • A 9 X valuation gives a 105% higher target price 59,365 rupiah.
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