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UNTR sharp with an 11% yield forecast
UNTR Current 31,100 Target 58,417 + 88%
28 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters
19,411 20,511 21,638 27,979 32,468
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-74% -73% -79% -76% -73%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,286 6,374 5,525 7,062 9,761
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-11,975 -9,600 -7,416 -7,258 -8,149
Last 12 months capital + 9% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
13,580 14,268 16,870 19,752 24,581
28 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters
19,411 20,511 21,638 27,979 32,468
- Sales grew 16% in the second quarter to 32,468 billion rupiah 9% above our 29,657 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 37,580 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-74% -73% -79% -76% -73%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -73% profit from 4,718 to 6,754 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 7,337 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,286 6,374 5,525 7,062 9,761
- Free cashflow went from 7,062 to 9,761 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1,696 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7,180 billion rupiah 25% of market cap.
- We assume -1,658 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 6,809 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-11,975 -9,600 -7,416 -7,258 -8,149
- Cash increased 35,716 to 39,127 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 42,974 to 47,276 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -7,258 to -8,149 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -13,257 billion rupiah equity payout -8,716 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 6,568 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital + 9% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
13,580 14,268 16,870 19,752 24,581
- UNTR 30 quarters capital improved 19,752 to 24,581 billion rupiah in the second quarter. with + 1,197 billion rupiah from liabilities + 3,631 billion rupiah from equity & will be 46,553 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 116,007 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.87 X assets with a 3 years payback & an 11% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 27,238 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. An 8 X valuation gives a 88% higher target price 58,417 rupiah.
