Other stocks here
UNTR looking very sharp as sales & cashflow surge to records
UNTR Current 28,900 Target 59,365 + 105%
28 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales surged 29%
Last 5 quarters
30% 8% 6% 5% 29%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-77% -74% -73% -79% -76%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,100, 5,286, 6,374, 5,525, 7,062
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-12,000, -11,975, -9,600, -7,416, -7,258
Capital paid improved , a 105% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12,283, 15,321, 16,009, 18,611, 21,493
28 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales surged 29%
Last 5 quarters
30% 8% 6% 5% 29%
- Sales surged 29% in the first quarter to 27,979 billion rupiah 32% above our 21,205 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 35,319 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-77% -74% -73% -79% -76%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -76% profit from 2,542 to 4,718 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use the average -75% cost ratio to predict a 6,658 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,100, 5,286, 6,374, 5,525, 7,062
- Free cashflow went from 5,525 to 7,062 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1,620 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,062 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1,620 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 6,900 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-12,000, -11,975, -9,600, -7,416, -7,258
- Cash increased 33,322 to 35,716 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 40,738 to 42,974 billion rupiah so net cash improved -7,416 to -7,258 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -7,090 billion rupiah equity payout -7,971 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be positive 11,020 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 105% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12,283, 15,321, 16,009, 18,611, 21,493
- UNTR 29 quarters capital paid improved 18,611 to 21,493 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with -2,825 billion rupiah liabilities -58 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be 35,791 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 107,801 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.84 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 24,604 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation.
- A 9 X valuation gives a 105% higher target price 59,365 rupiah.