UNTR 8% yield forecast
UNTR Current 31,450 Target 47,889 + 52%
02/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 5% 29% 16% -4%
20,511 21,638 27,979 32,468 31,086
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-73% -79% -76% -73% -74%
3,377 2,542 4,718 6,754 5,959
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
6,051 5,271 6,871 9,578 8,120
-857 -1,050 -1,620 -1,696 -2,698
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
31,628 33,322 35,716 39,127 43,410
41,228 40,738 42,974 47,276 56,397
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
14,268 16,870 19,752 24,581 26,069
668 1,183 2,825 1,197 -742
20 1,419 58 3,631 2,230
02/11/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 52%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 19% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 10% of market cap
- Latest net cash -11% of market cap
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% 5% 29% 16% -4%
20,511 21,638 27,979 32,468 31,086
- Sales declined -4% in the third quarter to 31,086 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 32,656 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-73% -79% -76% -73% -74%
3,377 2,542 4,718 6,754 5,959
- The cash cost ratio went from -73% to -74% profit from 6,754 to 5,959 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use a -75% cost ratio to predict a -2,092 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
6,051 5,271 6,871 9,578 8,120
-857 -1,050 -1,620 -1,696 -2,698
- Free cashflow went from 7,881 to 5,422 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2,698 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5,694 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2,005 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 5,582 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
31,628 33,322 35,716 39,127 43,410
41,228 40,738 42,974 47,276 56,397
- Cash increased 39,127 to 43,410 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 47,276 to 56,397 billion rupiah so net cash was down -8,149 to -12,987 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -9,149 billion rupiah equity payout -10,396 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 1,086 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
14,268 16,870 19,752 24,581 26,069
668 1,183 2,825 1,197 -742
20 1,419 58 3,631 2,230
- UNTR cumulative capital improved 24,581 to 26,069 billion rupiah with -742 & + 2,230 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 45,615 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 117,313 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.82 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 22,329 billion rupiah (vs 30,763 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 47,889 rupiah.
