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Picture

UNSP sales up again

UNSP.jk Current 138 Target 118 -14%

12/7/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth -35%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -97% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -59% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -2,988% of market cap

Sales grew 184%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% -1% 9% -79% 184%
1,104 ; 1,092 ; 1,193 ; 253 ; 717
  • Sales grew 184% in the third quarter to 717 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
  • This brings the average to 28% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 868 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
19% 22% 12% 358% 7%
266 ; 198 ; 10 ; 683 ; -171
  • The cash margin went from 358% to 7% profit from 683 to -171 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 100% now.
  • We use a 7% cash margin to predict a -128 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow slightly less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
9 ; 165 ; 131 ; -213 ; -186
-13 ; -149 ; -93 ; 11 ; -1
  • Free cashflow went from -202 to -187 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -84 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 62 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
201 ; 268 ; 366 ; 257 ; 69
15,100 ; 15,151 ; 15,141 ; 10,125 ; 10,378
  • Cash declined 257 to 69 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 10,125 to 10,378 billion rupiah so net cash was down -9,868 to -10,309 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -247 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10,062 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-74 ; -52 ; -60 ; -92 ; 0
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • UNSP.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 247 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 345 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.07 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 247 billion rupiah which means a 1.4 X valuation. A 1.2 X valuation gives a -14% lower target price 118 rupiah.
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