UNSP sales up again
UNSP.jk Current 138 Target 118 -14%
12/7/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 184%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% -1% 9% -79% 184%
1,104 ; 1,092 ; 1,193 ; 253 ; 717
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
19% 22% 12% 358% 7%
266 ; 198 ; 10 ; 683 ; -171
Cashflow slightly less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
9 ; 165 ; 131 ; -213 ; -186
-13 ; -149 ; -93 ; 11 ; -1
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
201 ; 268 ; 366 ; 257 ; 69
15,100 ; 15,151 ; 15,141 ; 10,125 ; 10,378
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-74 ; -52 ; -60 ; -92 ; 0
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
12/7/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -35%
- Last 12 months cash flow -97% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -59% of market cap
- Latest net cash -2,988% of market cap
Sales grew 184%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% -1% 9% -79% 184%
1,104 ; 1,092 ; 1,193 ; 253 ; 717
- Sales grew 184% in the third quarter to 717 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
- This brings the average to 28% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 868 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
19% 22% 12% 358% 7%
266 ; 198 ; 10 ; 683 ; -171
- The cash margin went from 358% to 7% profit from 683 to -171 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 100% now.
- We use a 7% cash margin to predict a -128 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow slightly less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
9 ; 165 ; 131 ; -213 ; -186
-13 ; -149 ; -93 ; 11 ; -1
- Free cashflow went from -202 to -187 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -84 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 62 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
201 ; 268 ; 366 ; 257 ; 69
15,100 ; 15,151 ; 15,141 ; 10,125 ; 10,378
- Cash declined 257 to 69 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 10,125 to 10,378 billion rupiah so net cash was down -9,868 to -10,309 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -247 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10,062 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-74 ; -52 ; -60 ; -92 ; 0
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
- UNSP.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 247 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 345 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.07 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 247 billion rupiah which means a 1.4 X valuation. A 1.2 X valuation gives a -14% lower target price 118 rupiah.