UNSP cashflow negative again
UNSP Current 170 Target 176 + 3%
Sep 9, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -79%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
25% 12% -1% 9% -79%
986 1,104 1,092 1,193 253
Costs up profit up on non cash gains
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-102% -99% -86% -88% -175%
76 266 199 10 684
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-19 6 166 130 -213
-50 -13 -149 -93 11
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
131 201 269 366 257
15,280 15,100 15,151 15,141 10,125
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,718 1,643 1,588 1,528 1,437
-60 -75 -55 -60 -91
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 9, 2022
1 minute read
- UNSP last 12 months sales growth -74%
- UNSP last 12 months cash flow -36% of market cap
- UNSP last 12 months Capital -66% of market cap
- UNSP latest net cash -2,322% of market cap
Sales declined -79%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
25% 12% -1% 9% -79%
986 1,104 1,092 1,193 253
- Sales declined -79% in the second quarter to 253 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 9% now.
- This brings the average to -15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 19% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 476 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up on non cash gains
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-102% -99% -86% -88% -175%
76 266 199 10 684
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -175% profit from 10 to 684 billion rupiah in the second quarter on non cash gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -112% now.
- We use a -94% cost ratio to predict a -29 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-19 6 166 130 -213
-50 -13 -149 -93 11
- Free cashflow went negative from 38 to -203 billion rupiah in the second quarter even with positive 11 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -39 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a positive 26 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
131 201 269 366 257
15,280 15,100 15,151 15,141 10,125
- Cash declined 366 to 257 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 15,141 to 10,125 billion rupiah so net cash was up -14,775 to -9,868 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -103 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -9,765 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,718 1,643 1,588 1,528 1,437
-60 -75 -55 -60 -91
0 0 0 0 0
- UNSP cumulative capital worsened 1,528 to 1,437 billion rupiah with -91 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,540 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 425 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.09 X assets with a 51 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 98 billion rupiah (vs -154 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 4 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 176 rupiah.
