Other stocks here

UNSP, a 53% higher target price
Current 109 Target 166 +53%

December 24th 2021
1 minute read

Sales grew 12%

• Sales grew 12% in the third quarter to 1,104 billion rupiah vs our 1,054 billion rupiah forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 17% growth.
• We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,265 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Costs -3 points lower, profit up

• The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -92% profit tripled from 76 to 266 billion rupiah in the third quarter (with non cash gains).
• Bur the average Cashflow cost ratio is srill higher at -100% now.
• We use a -95% cost ratio to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Cashflow less negative

• Free cashflow went from -67 to -5 billion rupiah in the third quarter with lower -13 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at -47 billion rupiah now.
• We assume higher -31 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 38 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Balance sheet lower leverage

• Cash increased 131 to 201 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities declined 15,280 to 15,100 billion rupiah so net cash improved -15,149 to -14,899 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -1 billion rupiah equity payout -138 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -14,761 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

​
Valuation, a 53% higher target price

• UNSP capital from the last 27 quarters worsened 239 to 164 billion rupiah in the third quarter​ with 75 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be higher at 303 billion rupiah in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 273 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.03 X assets with a 56 years payback & a 0% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 139 billion rupiah which means an 2 X valuation. A 3 X valuation gives a 53% higher target price of 166 rupiah.

Data & model