ULTJ 6% yield forecast
ULTJ.jk Current 1,385 Target 1,936 + 40%
11/17/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 5% 1% 1% 7%
1,732 1,825 1,837 1,854 1,987
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -78% -80% -81% -82%
252 363 298 311 227
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
402 211 48 101 146
711 458 -78 -103 -42
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,736 1,599 1,569 1,567 1,425
4,228 2,269 2,399 2,145 2,339
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3 1,509 0 -0 -0
596 297 0 0 246
11/17/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 15%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 14% of market cap
- Latest net cash -6% of market cap
Sales grew 7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 5% 1% 1% 7%
1,732 1,825 1,837 1,854 1,987
- Sales grew 7% in the third quarter to 1,987 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,191 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-81% -78% -80% -81% -82%
252 363 298 311 227
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -82% profit from 311 to 227 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use a -81% cost ratio to predict a 381 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
402 211 48 101 146
711 458 -78 -103 -42
- Free cashflow went positive again from -2 to 104 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -42 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 185 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -74 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 336 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,736 1,599 1,569 1,567 1,425
4,228 2,269 2,399 2,145 2,339
- Cash declined 1,567 to 1,425 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,145 to 2,339 billion rupiah so net cash was down -578 to -914 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -876 billion rupiah equity payout -434 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -448 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-3 1,509 0 -0 -0
596 297 0 0 246
- ULTJ.jk paid 246 billion rupiah in the third quarter -0 billion rupiah liabilities 246 billion rupiah equity & will pay 1,310 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 14,402 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.76 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,342 billion rupiah which means a 11 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 1,936 rupiah.
