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ULTJ looking very sharp as capital paid jumps
ULTJ Current 1,500 Target 3,104 + 107%
Apr 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
5% 1% 1% 12% 5%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -70% -80% -83% -77%
Cashflow lower but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-196, 294, 354, 1,117, 674
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,322 -2,085 -1,658 -1,492 -670
Capital paid improved ,a 107% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-388, -307, -307, 291, 2,102
Apr 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
5% 1% 1% 12% 5%
- Sales grew 5% in the fourth quarter to 1,825 billion rupiah 0% above our 1,818 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,974 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -70% -80% -83% -77%
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -77% profit from 252 to 363 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the latest -77% cost ratio to predict a 398 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-196, 294, 354, 1,117, 674
- Free cashflow went from 1,117 to 674 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 458 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 610 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -23 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 422 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,322 -2,085 -1,658 -1,492 -670
- Cash declined 2,736 to 1,599 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,228 to 2,269 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,492 to -670 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -609 billion rupiah equity payout -421 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be positive 335 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved ,a 107% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-388, -307, -307, 291, 2,102
- ULTJ 16 quarters capital paid jumped 291 to 2,102 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -1,509 billion rupiah liabilities -297 billion rupiah equity & will be 3,131 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,597 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.97 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,614 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 107% higher target price 3,104 rupiah.