ULTJ a bit slower
ULTJ Current 1,490 Target 2,299 + 54%
Aug 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 12% 5% 1% 1%
1,539 1,732 1,825 1,837 1,854
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-80% -83% -77% -81% -81%
256 252 363 298 311
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
373 402 211 48 101
-23 711 458 -78 -103
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,216 2,736 1,599 1,569 1,567
3,874 4,228 2,269 2,399 2,145
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-626 -33 1,774 1,774 1,774
-4 -3 1,509 0 -0
0 596 297 0 0
Aug 15, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 15% of market cap
- Latest net cash -4% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 12% 5% 1% 1%
1,539 1,732 1,825 1,837 1,854
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 1,854 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,043 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-80% -83% -77% -81% -81%
256 252 363 298 311
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -81% profit from 298 to 311 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the average -81% cost ratio to predict a 352 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
373 402 211 48 101
-23 711 458 -78 -103
- Free cashflow went from -30 to -2 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -103 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 438 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -90 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 299 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,216 2,736 1,599 1,569 1,567
3,874 4,228 2,269 2,399 2,145
- Cash declined 1,569 to 1,567 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,399 to 2,145 billion rupiah so net cash was up -830 to -578 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -413 billion rupiah equity payout -398 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 204 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-626 -33 1,774 1,774 1,774
-4 -3 1,509 0 -0
0 596 297 0 0
- ULTJ cumulative capital was flat at 1,774 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 2,585 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,493 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.83 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,195 billion rupiah which means an 13 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 54% higher target price 2,299 rupiah.
