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Picture
UFOE.jk Cashflow negative again…

Current 240 Target 165 -31%

12/20/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth YoY + 8%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 3% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -43% of market cap
​
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters QoQ sales growth, sales billion rupiah
-12% 12% -6% 12% -8%
164 ; 183 ; 172 ; 192 ; 178
  • Sales declined -8% in the third quarter to 178 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v actual sales are + 2% now.
  • This brings the average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 184 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
4% 4% 4% 3% 5%
3 ; 4 ; 3 ; 3 ; 5
  • The cash margin went from 3% to 5% profit from 3 to 5 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 4% now.
  • We use a 5% cash margin to predict a 5 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
3 ; 1 ; 4 ; 1 ; -2
-1 ; -4 ; -2 ; 29 ; -14
  • Free cashflow went from 30 to -15 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -14 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 5 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
8 ; 7 ; 7 ; 7 ; 7
243 ; 244 ; 239 ; 233 ; 245
  • Cash was flat at 7 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 233 to 245 billion rupiah so net cash was down -226 to -238 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -19 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -219 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2 ; -1 ; 2 ; 30 ; -15
3 ; -2 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • UFOE.jk (raised) -15 billion rupiah in the third quarter -15 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 19 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 549 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.25 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 19 billion rupiah which means a 29 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a -31% lower target price 165 rupiah.
​
UFOE.jk Arus kas kembali negatif
​
Harga saat ini 240 Target 165 -31%

12/20/2022
Waktu baca 1 menit


  • Pertumbuhan penjualan 12 bulan terakhir + 8%
  • Arus cash 12 bulan terakhir 2% dari kapitalisasi pasar
  • Kapital (hutang & ekuitas) 12 bulan terakhir 3% dari kapitalisasi pasar
  • Posisi kas bersih (kas minus liabilitas) saat ini -43% dari kapitalisasi pasar
​
Penjualan turun -8%
Pertumbuhan penjualan dan angka penjualan 5 kuartal terakhir rupiah miliar
-12% 12% -6% 12% -8%
164 ; 183 ; 172 ; 192 ; 178
  • Penjualan turun -8% di kuartal ketiga menjadi rupiah miliar 178 Estimasi kami atas angka penjualan dibandingkan dengan aktual + 2%
  • Ini menjadikan rata-rata pertumbuhan memjadi 2% ‘.
  • Kami memprediksikan rata-rata pertumbuhan 1% dalam waktu 12 bulan sehingga penjualan akan menjadi rupiah miliar 184 0 di kuartal ketiga 2023.
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