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UFOE, expensive
Current 1,790 Target 557 -69%
January 17 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -12%
Costs lower, profit up
But cashflow lower
Balance sheet lower leverage
Valuation, a -69% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -12%
- Sales declined -12% in the third quarter to 164 billion rupiah & were down -2% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 192 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower, profit up
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -96% profit from 1 to 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The Cashflow cost ratio was higher at -98%.
- We use the lower -96% cost ratio to predict a 4 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
But cashflow lower
- Free cashflow went from 4 to 3 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 4 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 6 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
- Cash increased 6 to 8 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 245 to 243 billion rupiah so net cash improved -239 to -235 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -5 billion rupiah equity payout -20 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -215 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -69% lower target price
- UFOE capital raised from the last 19 quarters improved -153 to -151 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 2 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -3 billion rupiah equity payout & will be -127 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,095 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 10 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 26 billion rupiah which means an 161 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -69% lower target price of 557 rupiah.