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Picture

UCID.jk Sales grew 8%

Picture
Current 1,235 Target 1,815 + 47%

Feb 24, 2023
1 minute read
​
  • Last 12 months sales growth + 13%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -36% of market cap

Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
8% 5% -1% 1% 8%
2,418 ; 2,547 ; 2,514 ; 2,528 ; 2,728 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 8% in the fourth quarter to 2,728 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,921 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
9% 8% 6% 10% 7%
97 ; 89 ; 27 ; 138 ; 60 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 10% to 7% net profit from 138 to 60 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 8% now.
  • We use a 7% cash profit margin to predict a 72 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
41 ; 298 ; -183 ; 66 ; 92 billion rupiah
-38 ; -80 ; -24 ; -27 ; -36 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 39 to 55 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -36 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 27 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -42 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 145 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,500 ; 1,687 ; 1,450 ; 1,361 ; 1,372 billion rupiah
2,881 ; 3,052 ; 3,116 ; 3,071 ; 3,219 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 1,361 to 1,372 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 3,071 to 3,219 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,710 to -1,847 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -78 billion rupiah equity payout -501 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,346 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
117 ; 32 ; 34 ; 32 ; 41 billion rupiah
-0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 95 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • UCID.jk paid 41 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 41 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 578 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 5,117 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.63 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 2% yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 578 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 47% higher target price 1,815 rupiah.
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