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UCID sharp as sales rise to a record
UCID Current 1,210 Target 1,958 + 62%
May 31, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 12% -5% 8% 5%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -89% -89% -91% -92%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
222, -9, 279, -20, 195
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,603 -1,662 -1,366 -1,382 -1,365
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,706, 1,726, 1,787, 1,882, 1,891
May 31, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters
-6% 12% -5% 8% 5%
- Sales grew 5% in the first quarter to 2,547 billion rupiah 9% above our 2,345 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,728 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -89% -89% -91% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -91% to -92% profit from 97 to 89 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 148 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
222, -9, 279, -20, 195
- Free cashflow went positive from -20 to 195 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -80 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 111 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -59 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 187 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,603 -1,662 -1,366 -1,382 -1,365
- Cash increased 1,499 to 1,687 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,881 to 3,052 billion rupiah so net cash improved -1,382 to -1,365 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -116 billion rupiah equity payout -566 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -652 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,706, 1,726, 1,787, 1,882, 1,891
- UCID 25 quarters capital paid improved 1,882 to 1,891 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with a -9 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,573 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,013 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.63 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 738 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. An 11 X valuation gives a 62% higher target price of 1,958 rupiah.