UCID a bit lower
UCID Current 1,185 Target 1,903 + 61%
Aug 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -5% 8% 5% -1%
2,351 2,244 2,418 2,547 2,514
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-89% -89% -91% -92% -94%
140 135 97 89 27
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
93 329 18 275 -206
-102 -50 -38 -80 -24
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,408 1,614 1,500 1,687 1,450
3,070 2,980 2,881 3,052 3,116
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,726 1,787 1,882 1,891 1,901
20 -1 95 9 10
0 62 -0 0 0
Aug 26, 2022
1 minute read
- UCID last 12 months sales growth below average at + 7%
- UCID last 12 months cash flow slightly above average at + 5% of market cap
- UCID last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- UCID latest net cash -34% of market cap
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
12% -5% 8% 5% -1%
2,351 2,244 2,418 2,547 2,514
- Sales declined -1% in the second quarter to 2,514 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,693 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-89% -89% -91% -92% -94%
140 135 97 89 27
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -94% profit from 89 to 27 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use the average -91% cost ratio to predict a 109 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
93 329 18 275 -206
-102 -50 -38 -80 -24
- Free cashflow went negative from 195 to -230 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -24 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 56 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -24 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 179 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,408 1,614 1,500 1,687 1,450
3,070 2,980 2,881 3,052 3,116
- Cash declined 1,687 to 1,450 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,052 to 3,116 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,365 to -1,666 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -84 billion rupiah equity payout -571 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -939 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,726 1,787 1,882 1,891 1,901
20 -1 95 9 10
0 62 -0 0 0
- UCID cumulative capital improved 1,891 to 1,901 billion rupiah with + 10 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 2,556 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,910 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.63 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 717 (vs last 12 months 225) billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 61% higher target price 1,903 rupiah.
