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UBER, looking sharper as margins turn positive
Current 35 Target 42 +20%
Sales growth & cashflow 5 quarters
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February 12 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 19%
Costs below 100%, profit positive
Cashflow higher
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, a 20% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 19%
- Sales grew 19% in the fourth quarter to 5,778 million dollars vs our 5,717 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,196 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs below 100%, profit positive
- The cash cost ratio went from -103% to -92% profit from -2,439 to 870 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -113% now.
- We use a lower -89% cost ratio to predict a 1,149 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow higher
- Free cashflow went from 466 to 558 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -80 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -41 million dollars now.
- We assume -76 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 762 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash declined 6,482 to 4,295 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 22,599 to 23,629 million dollars so net cash worsened -16,117 to -19,334 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,148 million dollars equity payout -1,371 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -17,963 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 20% higher target price
- UBER capital raised from the last 16 quarters worsened -16,922 to -17,396 million dollars in the fourth quarter. with a -140 liabilities payment, 513 million dollars new equity & will be -15,117 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 68,470 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.71 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,048 million dollars which means an 22 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 20% higher target price of 42 rupiah.