UBER

UBER Cashflow negative again

Current 35 Target 36 + 3%

Feb 15, 2023
1 minute read

Last 12 months sales growth + 49%
Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -0% of market cap
Latest cash minus liabilities -28% of market cap

Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
19% 19% 18% 3% 3%
5,778 ; 6,854 ; 8,073 ; 8,343 ; 8,607 million dollars

Sales grew 3% in the fourth quarter to 8,607 million dollars .
This brings the quarterly average to 11% growth.
We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,872 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
8% -1% -3% 1% 5%
870 ; -5,918 ; -2,616 ; -1,204 ; 600 million dollars

The cash profit margin went from 1% to 5% net profit from -1,204 to 600 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
The average margin is at 0% now.
We use a 5% cash profit margin to predict a -62 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
638 ; -47 ; 393 ; 393 ; -244 million dollars
-2,268 ; -135 ; -54 ; 321 ; -1,769 million dollars

Free cashflow went from 714 to -2,013 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -1,769 million dollars investment cashflow.
Average quarterly Cashflow is at -286 million dollars now.
We assume -135 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 328 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,295 ; 4,184 ; 4,397 ; 4,865 ; 4,208 million dollars
23,629 ; 22,994 ; 23,451 ; 23,712 ; 23,605 million dollars

Cash declined 4,865 to 4,208 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
Liabilities declined 23,712 to 23,605 million dollars so net cash was down -18,847 to -19,397 million dollars
With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -1,313 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -18,084 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
140 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 122 million dollars
-513 ; 0 ; -59 ; -251 ; -33 million dollars

UBER paid 89 million dollars in the fourth quarter 122 million dollars liabilities -33 million dollars equity, will pay 1,313 million dollars this next 12 months.
At the current market cap of 70,263 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.31 X assets with a 20 years payback & a 0% yield forecast.
Our cashflow forecast is 1,313 million dollars which means a 53 X valuation. A 55 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 36 dollars.