UBER almost positive margins…
UBER Current 32 Target 33 + 4%
Aug 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
35% 23% 19% 19% 18%
3,929, 4,845, 5,778, 6,854, 8,073
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-120% -103% -92% -101% -103%
1,112 -2,439 870 -5,918 -2,616
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-395 556 638 -47 393
101 1,216 -2,268 -135 -54
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
4,443 6,482 4,295 4,184 4,397
20,507 22,599 23,629 22,994 23,451
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-15,308 -16,840 -17,213 -17,213 -17,272
0 -1,290 140 0 0
0 -242 -513 0 -59
Aug 7, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -30% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
35% 23% 19% 19% 18%
3,929, 4,845, 5,778, 6,854, 8,073
- Sales grew 18% in the second quarter to 8,073 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -9% now.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,428 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-120% -103% -92% -101% -103%
1,112 -2,439 870 -5,918 -2,616
- The cash cost ratio went from -101% to -103% profit from -5,918 to -2,616 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -100% now.
- We use a lower -97% cost ratio to predict a -2,114 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-395 556 638 -47 393
101 1,216 -2,268 -135 -54
- Free cashflow went from -182 to 339 million dollars in the second quarter with -54 investment cashflow & positive working capital .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 75 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -54 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 137 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
4,443 6,482 4,295 4,184 4,397
20,507 22,599 23,629 22,994 23,451
- Cash increased 4,184 to 4,397 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 22,994 to 23,451 million dollars so net cash was down -18,810 to -19,054 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -22 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -18,367 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-15,308 -16,840 -17,213 -17,213 -17,272
0 -1,290 140 0 0
0 -242 -513 0 -59
- UBER cumulative capital worsened -17,213 to -17,272 million dollars with 0 & -59 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -16,769 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 63,377 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.90 X assets with a 49 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 547 million dollars which means an 116 X valuation. A 120 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 33 dollars.
