TXN Sales declined -11%
Current 178 Target 184 + 3%
1/25/2023
1 minute read
Sales declined -11%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
4% 2% 6% 1% -11%
4,832 ; 4,905 ; 5,212 ; 5,241 ; 4,670 million dollars
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
49% 51% 50% 50% 45%
2,138 ; 2,201 ; 2,291 ; 2,295 ; 1,962 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,357 ; 2,144 ; 1,768 ; 2,766 ; 2,042 million dollars
-2,229 ; -1,668 ; 1,225 ; -2,113 ; -1,027 million dollars
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,631 ; 3,505 ; 3,802 ; 3,169 ; 3,050 million dollars
11,343 ; 11,259 ; 10,631 ; 11,550 ; 12,630 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 500 ; -695 ; -799 million dollars
1,160 ; 1,602 ; 2,196 ; 1,981 ; 1,933 million dollars
Current 178 Target 184 + 3%
1/25/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -3%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 4% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -6% of market cap
Sales declined -11%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
4% 2% 6% 1% -11%
4,832 ; 4,905 ; 5,212 ; 5,241 ; 4,670 million dollars
- Sales declined -11% in the fourth quarter to 4,670 million dollars.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,906 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
49% 51% 50% 50% 45%
2,138 ; 2,201 ; 2,291 ; 2,295 ; 1,962 million dollars
- The cash margin went from 50% to 45% profit from 2,295 to 1,962 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 49% now.
- We use a 49% cash margin to predict a 2,134 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
2,357 ; 2,144 ; 1,768 ; 2,766 ; 2,042 million dollars
-2,229 ; -1,668 ; 1,225 ; -2,113 ; -1,027 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 653 to 1,015 million dollars in the fourth quarter with lower -1,027 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,284 million dollars now.
- We assume -1,027 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 1,306 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
4,631 ; 3,505 ; 3,802 ; 3,169 ; 3,050 million dollars
11,343 ; 11,259 ; 10,631 ; 11,550 ; 12,630 million dollars
- Cash declined 3,169 to 3,050 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 11,550 to 12,630 million dollars so net cash was down -8,381 to -9,580 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -5,780 million dollars equity payout + 557 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -10,137 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 500 ; -695 ; -799 million dollars
1,160 ; 1,602 ; 2,196 ; 1,981 ; 1,933 million dollars
- TXN paid 1,134 million dollars in the fourth quarter -799 million dollars liabilities 1,933 million dollars equity, will pay 5,223 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 161,702 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 5.35 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 5,223 million dollars which means a 31 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 184 rupiah.