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TWTR a bit less dull as margins improve, but they’re still low
TWTR Current 40 Target 42 + 5%
Jul 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
15% 8% 22% -23% -2%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-73% -136% -70% -94% -92%
Cashflow lower on lower investment gains
Last 5 quarters million dollars
117, -369, -37, 1,140, 434
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,481 -3,943 -4,566 -5,363 -4,966
Capital paid worsened , a 5% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,184, -1,054, -812, 281, 241
Jul 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
15% 8% 22% -23% -2%
- Sales declined -2% in the second quarter to 1,177 million dollars -7% below our 1,261 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to only 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,238 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-73% -136% -70% -94% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -92% profit from 513 to a loss -270 million dollars in the second quarter (a reversal of non cash gains to costs).
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use a lower -82% cost ratio to predict a -67 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower on lower investment gains
Last 5 quarters million dollars
117, -369, -37, 1,140, 434
- Free cashflow went from 1,140 to 434 million dollars in the second quarter with lower 337 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 292 million dollars now.
- We assume -135 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive average 106 million dollars Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-3,481 -3,943 -4,566 -5,363 -4,966
- Cash increased 2,283 to 2,681 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased slightly 7,646 to 7,647 million dollars so net cash improved -5,363 to -4,966 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -424 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -4,542 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 5% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,184, -1,054, -812, 281, 241
- TWTR 26 quarter capital paid worsened 281 to 241 million dollars in the second quarter with 0 million dollars from liabilities -40 million dollars from equity but will be 705 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 30,200 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.3 X assets with a 26 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 424 million dollars which means a 71 X valuation. A 75 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 42 dollars.
