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TWTR looking sharper as capital paid turns positive
TWTR Current 49 Target 56 + 14%
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-20% 15% 8% 22% -23%
Costs up profit up on asset sale gains
Last 5 quarters
-72% -73% -136% -70% -94%
Cashflow higher from Investment gains
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,070, 172, 483, -1,039, 1,191
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,998 -3,481 -3,943 -4,566 -5,363
Capital turns positive , a 14% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,483, -2,184, -1,054, -812, 281
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-20% 15% 8% 22% -23%
- Sales declined seasonally -23% in the first quarter to 1,201 million dollars -12% below our 1,363 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,328 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up on asset sale gains
Last 5 quarters
-72% -73% -136% -70% -94%
- The cash cost ratio went from -70% to -94% profit from 182 to 513 million dollars in the first quarter from asset sale gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use a lower -76% cost ratio to predict a 113 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher from Investment gains
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,070, 172, 483, -1,039, 1,191
- Free cashflow went from -1,039 to 1,191 million dollars in the first quarter with 1,065 million dollars investment gains
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 202 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -135 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 190 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,998 -3,481 -3,943 -4,566 -5,363
- Cash increased 2,187 to 2,283 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 6,752 to 7,646 million dollars so net cash worsened -4,566 to -5,363 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -153 million dollars equity payout -666 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -4,697 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital turns positive , a 14% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-2,483, -2,184, -1,054, -812, 281
- TWTR 25 quarter capital paid turned positive -812 to 281 million dollars in the first quarter with 1,000 million dollars new liabilities, a -2,078 million dollars equity buyback & will be 1,101 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 37,431 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.8 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 820 million dollars which means an 46 X valuation. A 52 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price 56 dollars.