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TSPC sharp with a 4% yield forecast
TSPC Current 1,400 Target 2,154 + 54%
Jun 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
-5% -0% 4% 1% 3%
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-86% -93% -92% -88% -88%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12, -140, 284, 85, -5
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-350 -341 -235 -81 -433
Capital paid worsened , a 54% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
443, 254, 558, 676, 571
Jun 15, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
-5% -0% 4% 1% 3%
- Sales grew 3% in the first quarter to 2,972 billion rupiah 4% above our 2,861 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,184 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-86% -93% -92% -88% -88%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -88% profit increased from 289 to 291 billion rupiah in the first quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 160 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
12, -140, 284, 85, -5
- Free cashflow went negative from 85 to -5 billion rupiah in the first quarter with higher -174 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 56 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -99 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 119 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-350 -341 -235 -81 -433
- Cash increased 2,688 to 2,793 billion rupiah in the first quarter
- Liabilities increased 2,769 to 3,226 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -81 to -433 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -243 billion rupiah equity payout -466 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 33 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 54% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
443, 254, 558, 676, 571
- TSPC 25 quarter capital paid worsened 676 to 571 billion rupiah in the first quarter with + 105 billion rupiah liabilities but will be 1,280 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,314 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.60 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 647 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 54% higher target price 2,154 rupiah.