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TSPC looking sharp as the balance sheet heads to net cash
TSPC Current 1,465 Target 2,515 + 72%
Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
5% -5% -0% 4% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -86% -93% -92% -88%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
287, 12, -140, 284, 85
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-82 -350 -341 -235 -81
Capital paid improved , a 72% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
435, 443, 254, 558, 676
Apr 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
5% -5% -0% 4% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the fourth quarter to 2,889 billion rupiah -4% below our 3,003 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,095 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-88% -86% -93% -92% -88%
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -88% profit from 145 to 289 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the latest -88% cost ratio to predict a 156 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
287, 12, -140, 284, 85
- Free cashflow went from 284 to 85 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -72 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 60 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -72 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 137 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-82 -350 -341 -235 -81
- Cash declined 2,689 to 2,688 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,924 to 2,769 billion rupiah so net cash improved -235 to -81 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -334 billion rupiah equity payout -444 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be positive 417 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 72% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
435, 443, 254, 558, 676
- TSPC 24 quarter capital paid improved 558 to 676 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -13 billion rupiah liabilities -105 billion rupiah equity & will be 1,379 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,607 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.68 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 756 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price 2,515 rupiah.