TSPC faster sales growth
TSPC.jk Current 1,370 Target 2,226 + 63%
11/22/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 1% 3% -0% 6%
2,860 2,889 2,972 2,969 3,149
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-90% -90% -90% -90% -90%
145 289 291 111 166
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
339 157 169 18 95
-55 -72 -174 -239 -106
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,689 2,688 2,793 2,789 2,729
2,924 2,769 3,226 3,591 3,427
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
35 13 -105 -296 -66
270 105 0 114 144
11/22/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 10%
- Last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -1% of market cap
- Latest net cash -11% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 1% 3% -0% 6%
2,860 2,889 2,972 2,969 3,149
- Sales grew 6% in the third quarter to 3,149 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,373 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-90% -90% -90% -90% -90%
145 289 291 111 166
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -90% profit increased from 111 to 166 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use a -90% cost ratio to predict a 250 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
339 157 169 18 95
-55 -72 -174 -239 -106
- Free cashflow went from -221 to -11 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -106 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -38 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -106 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives positive 209 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,689 2,688 2,793 2,789 2,729
2,924 2,769 3,226 3,591 3,427
- Cash declined 2,789 to 2,729 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,591 to 3,427 billion rupiah so net cash was up -802 to -698 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -193 billion rupiah equity payout -636 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -54 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
35 13 -105 -296 -66
270 105 0 114 144
- TSPC.jk paid 79 billion rupiah in the third quarter -66 billion rupiah liabilities 144 billion rupiah equity & will pay 828 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 6,179 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.58 X assets with a 16 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 837 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 63% higher target price 2,226 rupiah.
