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Picture
TSLA Sales grew 13%

Current 144 Target 182 + 26%

1/26/2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 37%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 1% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -3% of market cap

Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
29% 6% -10% 27% 13%
17,719 ; 18,756 ; 16,934 ; 21,454 ; 24,318 million dollars
  • Sales grew 13% in the fourth quarter to 24,318 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -3% now.
  • This brings the average to 9% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 26,258 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
21% 25% 22% 23% 22%
2,343 ; 3,280 ; 2,269 ; 3,331 ; 3,707 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from 23% to 22% profit from 3,331 to 3,707 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 23% now.
  • We use a 23% cash margin to predict a 4,497 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
4,585 ; 3,995 ; 2,351 ; 5,100 ; 3,278 million dollars
-1,916 ; -2,167 ; -884 ; -2,791 ; -6,131 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 2,309 to -2,853 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -6,131 million dollars investment cashflow (-4,368 million dollars into securities & large negative working capital).
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 688 million dollars now.
  • We assume -2,167 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 3,588 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
18,144 ; 18,040 ; 18,887 ; 21,107 ; 22,185 million dollars
30,548 ; 30,632 ; 30,855 ; 33,302 ; 36,440 million dollars
  • Cash increased 21,107 to 22,185 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 33,302 to 36,440 million dollars so net cash was down -12,195 to -14,255 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -6,789 million dollars equity payout -6,759 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -6,694 million dollars in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,194 ; 1,866 ; 359 ; 899 ; 497 million dollars
63 ; 48 ; 47 ; 42 ; -2 million dollars
  • TSLA paid 495 million dollars in the fourth quarter 497 million dollars liabilities -2 million dollars equity, will pay 13,549 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 454,369 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 5.30 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 14,351 million dollars which means a 32 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a 26% higher target price 182 dollars.
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