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TSLA looking sharp with higher cashflow, but expensive
TSLA Current 1,028 Target 791 -23%
Apr 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
-3% 15% 15% 29% 6%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -80% -77% -79% -75%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-929, 933, 1,293, 1,814, 2,430
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-11,366 -12,667 -13,275 -12,972 -13,142
Capital raised improved , a -23% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-20,743 -19,194 -17,813 -16,556 -14,642
Apr 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters
-3% 15% 15% 29% 6%
- Sales grew 6% in the first quarter to 18,756 million dollars 8% above our 17,365 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 21,481 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -80% -77% -79% -75%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -75% profit from 2,343 to 3,280 million dollars in the first quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 3,576 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-929, 933, 1,293, 1,814, 2,430
- Free cashflow went from 1,814 to 2,430 million dollars in the first quarter with -2,167 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,618 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -2,167 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 2,726 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-11,366 -12,667 -13,275 -12,972 -13,142
- Cash declined 17,576 to 17,490 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 30,548 to 30,632 million dollars so net cash worsened -12,972 to -13,142 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,565 million dollars equity payout -5,682 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -6,282 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -23% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-20,743 -19,194 -17,813 -16,556 -14,642
- TSLA 29 quarter capital raised improved -16,556 to -14,642 million dollars in the first quarter with a -1,436 million dollars liabilities payment & will be -6,395 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,062,603 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 15 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 10,905 million dollars which means an 97 X valuation. A 75 X valuation gives a -23% lower target price 791 dollars.