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TSLA sharp with slower sales but rising cashflow & cash
TSLA Current 737 Target 949 + 29%
Jul 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters
15% 15% 29% 6% -10%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -77% -79% -75% -78%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
933, 1,293, 1,814, 2,430, 2,813
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12,667 -13,275 -12,972 -13,142 -12,531
Capital raised improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-19,194 -17,813 -16,556 -14,642 -14,236
Jul 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters
15% 15% 29% 6% -10%
- Sales declined -10% in the second quarter to 16,934 million dollars -8% below our 18,381 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 19,770 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-80% -77% -79% -75% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -78% profit from 3,280 to 2,269 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 3,034 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
933, 1,293, 1,814, 2,430, 2,813
- Free cashflow went from 2,430 to 2,813 million dollars in the second quarter with lower -884 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,088 million dollars now.
- We assume -1,047 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 3,415 million dollars Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-12,667 -13,275 -12,972 -13,142 -12,531
- Cash increased 17,490 to 18,324 million dollars in the second quarter
- Liabilities increased 30,632 to 30,855 million dollars so net cash improved -13,142 to -12,531 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -3,464 million dollars equity payout -5,723 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -2,924 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-19,194 -17,813 -16,556 -14,642 -14,236
- TSLA 30 quarter capital raised improved -14,642 to -14,236 million dollars in the second quarter with + 359 million dollars from liabilities -48 million dollars from equity & will be -5,454 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 763,395 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 11 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 13,659 million dollars which means a 56 X valuation. A 72 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price 949 dollars.
