TRIM sales/cashflow up/down
TRIM Current 268 Target 222 -17%
11/14/22
1 minute read
Sales leapt 114%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% -0% 22% 2% 114%
113 113 138 141 301
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -90% -80% -85% -51%
14 5 22 15 143
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
52 -126 -69 -182 -182
-0 -15 0 -1 8
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
520 444 338 315 397
2,286 943 1,606 1,902 2,208
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
78 14 51 225 -31
27 -84 23 163 -273
0 0 0 0 0
11/14/22
1 minute read
- TRIM last 12 months sales growth + 166%
- TRIM last 12 months cash flow -30% of market cap
- TRIM last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
- TRIM latest net cash -95% of market cap
Sales leapt 114%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% -0% 22% 2% 114%
113 113 138 141 301
- Sales leapt 114% in the third quarter to 301 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 34% growth.
- We predict average growth of -2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 280 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -90% -80% -85% -51%
14 5 22 15 143
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -51% profit from 15 to 143 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use a -77% cost ratio to predict a 61 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
52 -126 -69 -182 -182
-0 -15 0 -1 8
- Free cashflow went from -183 to -174 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 8 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -141 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 66 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
520 444 338 315 397
2,286 943 1,606 1,902 2,208
- Cash increased 315 to 397 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,902 to 2,208 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,587 to -1,811 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -264 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,547 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
78 14 51 225 -31
27 -84 23 163 -273
0 0 0 0 0
- TRIM cumulative capital worsened 225 to -31 billion rupiah with -273 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 233 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,905 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 264 billion rupiah (vs -294 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price 222 rupiah.
