TRIM average Cashflow negative
TRIM Current 338 Target 231 -32%
Sep 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-16% 6% -0% 22% 2%
107 113 113 138 141
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -83% -90% -80% -85%
13 14 5 22 15
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
57 38 -142 -81 142
3 -0 -15 0 -1
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
511 520 444 338 315
1,724 2,286 943 1,606 1,902
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
36 78 14 51 225
76 27 -84 23 163
0 0 0 0 0
Sep 19, 2022
1 minute read
- TRIM last 12 months sales growth + 31%
- TRIM last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- TRIM last 12 months Capital 8X average + 8% of market cap
- TRIM latest net cash -66% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-16% 6% -0% 22% 2%
107 113 113 138 141
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 141 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 152 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-83% -83% -90% -80% -85%
13 14 5 22 15
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -85% profit from 22 to 15 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the average -85% cost ratio to predict a 18 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
57 38 -142 -81 142
3 -0 -15 0 -1
- Free cashflow went from -81 to 141 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -15 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 23 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
511 520 444 338 315
1,724 2,286 943 1,606 1,902
- Cash declined 338 to 315 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,606 to 1,902 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,268 to -1,587 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -21 billion rupiah equity payout -70 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,517 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
36 78 14 51 225
76 27 -84 23 163
0 0 0 0 0
- TRIM cumulative capital improved 51 to 225 billion rupiah with + 163 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 316 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,403 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.86 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 91 billion rupiah (vs -66 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 26 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a -32% lower target price 231 rupiah.
