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TRIM less sharp with negative cashflow
TRIM Current 288 Target 303 + 5%
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 22%
Last 5 quarters
3% -16% 6% -0% 22%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-81% -83% -83% -90% -80%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
159, 58, 36, -159, -83
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,115 -1,213 -1,766 -499 -1,268
Capital paid improved , a 5% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-56, 36, 78, 14, 51
May 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 22%
Last 5 quarters
3% -16% 6% -0% 22%
- Sales jumped 22% in the first quarter to 138 billion rupiah 11% above our 125 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 152 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-81% -83% -83% -90% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -90% to -80% profit from 5 to 22 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a -81% cost ratio to predict a 121 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
159, 58, 36, -159, -83
- Free cashflow went from -159 to -83 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -37 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -72 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 57 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,115 -1,213 -1,766 -499 -1,268
- Cash declined 444 to 338 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 943 to 1,606 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -499 to -1,268 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -29 billion rupiah equity payout -91 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,177 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 5% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-56, 36, 78, 14, 51
- TRIM 29 quarter capital paid improved 14 to 51 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -23 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 171 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,047 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.83 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 120 billion rupiah which means a 17 X valuation. An 18 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 303 rupiah.