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TRIM sales/cashflow up/down

TRIM Current 268 Target 222 -17%

11/14/22
1 minute read


  • TRIM last 12 months sales growth + 166%
  • TRIM last 12 months cash flow -30% of market cap
  • TRIM last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
  • TRIM latest net cash -95% of market cap

Sales leapt 114%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
6% -0% 22% 2% 114%
113 113 138 141 301
  • Sales leapt 114% in the third quarter to 301 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
  • This brings the average to 34% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 280 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-83% -90% -80% -85% -51%
14 5 22 15 143
  • The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -51% profit from 15 to 143 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
  • We use a -77% cost ratio to predict a 61 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
52 -126 -69 -182 -182
-0 -15 0 -1 8
  • Free cashflow went from -183 to -174 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 8 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -141 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 66 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
520 444 338 315 397
2,286 943 1,606 1,902 2,208
  • Cash increased 315 to 397 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 1,902 to 2,208 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,587 to -1,811 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -264 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,547 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, new from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
78 14 51 225 -31
27 -84 23 163 -273
0 0 0 0 0
  • TRIM cumulative capital worsened 225 to -31 billion rupiah with -273 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 233 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,905 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 264 billion rupiah (vs -294 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price 222 rupiah.
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