TPIA Cashflow still negative
TPIA Current 2,360 Target 1,259 -47%
11/12/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
-7% 13% -3% -3% -7%
619 699 678 659 611
Costs down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-95% -99% -98% -105% -103%
1 -14 -11 -54 -46
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow million dollars
48 277 -578 -139 71
-143 -536 -155 202 -327
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
1,687 1,579 1,282 1,269 1,059
1,656 2,065 2,052 1,914 1,971
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-1,363 -1,514 -1,951 -1,875 -1,921
-16 -152 -437 65 -46
-1,003 1 0 11 0
11/12/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -1%
- Last 12 months cash flow -9% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -7% of market cap
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
-7% 13% -3% -3% -7%
619 699 678 659 611
- Sales declined -7% in the third quarter to 611 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is 2% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 644 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-95% -99% -98% -105% -103%
1 -14 -11 -54 -46
- The cash cost ratio went from -105% to -103% profit from -54 to -46 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -101% now.
- We use a -98% cost ratio to predict a -16 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow million dollars
48 277 -578 -139 71
-143 -536 -155 202 -327
- Free cashflow went negative from 63 to -256 million dollars in the third quarter with -327 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -296 million dollars now.
- We assume -93 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -81 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
1,687 1,579 1,282 1,269 1,059
1,656 2,065 2,052 1,914 1,971
- Cash declined 1,269 to 1,059 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,914 to 1,971 million dollars so net cash was down -645 to -912 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout + 325 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,237 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-1,363 -1,514 -1,951 -1,875 -1,921
-16 -152 -437 65 -46
-1,003 1 0 11 0
- TPIA cumulative capital worsened -1,875 to -1,921 million dollars with -46 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -2,246 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,611 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 2.68 X assets with a -12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 48 million dollars which means a 281 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -47% lower target price 1,259 rupiah.
