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TPIA dull as Cashflow more negative
TPIA Current 9,875 Target 5,927 -40%
May 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
11% 11% -7% 13% -3%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -84% -95% -99% -98%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-115, -4, -69, -229, -702
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-802 -885 31 -486 -770
Capital raised worsened , a -40% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-314 -344 -1,363 -1,514 -1,951
May 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
11% 11% -7% 13% -3%
- Sales declined -3% in the first quarter to 678 million dollars -9% below our 748 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 741 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-82% -84% -95% -99% -98%
- The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -98% profit from -14 to -11 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a lower -90% cost ratio to predict a 49 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-115, -4, -69, -229, -702
- Free cashflow went from -229 to -702 million dollars in the first quarter with -155 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -251 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -54 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 20 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-802 -885 31 -486 -770
- Cash declined 1,579 to 1,282 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,065 to 2,052 million dollars so net cash worsened -486 to -770 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -73 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -697 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a -40% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-314 -344 -1,363 -1,514 -1,951
- TPIA 25 quarter capital raised worsened -1,514 to -1,951 million dollars in the first quarter with 437 million dollars new liabilities but will be -1,878 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 15,255 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.00 X assets with a 46 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 80 million dollars which means an 192 X valuation. A 115 X valuation gives a -40% lower target price 5,927 rupiah.