TOWR cashflow positive again
TOWR Current 1,250 Target 497 -60%
Sep 5, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 4% 23% 2% 3%
2,015 2,095 2,568 2,619 2,697
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-35% -37% -43% -46% -46%
906 908 836 864 842
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
2,221 864 325 1,501 2,133
-506 -561 -17,225 -1,971 -991
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,649 18,774 4,750 1,775 769
33,002 33,443 61,079 61,717 62,604
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
356 -16,468 -19,361 -16,844 -14,689
-50 -16,900 -3,178 2,482 1,299
1,184 78 285 35 856
Sep 5, 2022
1 minute read
- TOWR last 12 months sales growth 1.5X average + 34%
- TOWR last 12 months cash flow -26% of market cap
- TOWR last 12 months Capital -24% of market cap
- TOWR latest net cash -99% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 4% 23% 2% 3%
2,015 2,095 2,568 2,619 2,697
- Sales grew 3% in the second quarter to 2,697 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -0% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,751 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-35% -37% -43% -46% -46%
906 908 836 864 842
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -46% profit declined from 864 to 842 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -43% now.
- We use the average -43% cost ratio to predict a 959 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
2,221 864 325 1,501 2,133
-506 -561 -17,225 -1,971 -991
- Free cashflow went positive from -470 to 1,141 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -991 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -3,981 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -991 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 269 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,649 18,774 4,750 1,775 769
33,002 33,443 61,079 61,717 62,604
- Cash declined 1,775 to 769 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 61,717 to 62,604 billion rupiah so net cash was down -59,942 to -61,835 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,075 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -47,454 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
356 -16,468 -19,361 -16,844 -14,689
-50 -16,900 -3,178 2,482 1,299
1,184 78 285 35 856
- TOWR cumulative capital improved -16,844 to -14,689 billion rupiah with + 1,299 & + 856 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -13,614 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 62,249 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.0 X assets with a 58 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,075 billion rupiah (vs -15,925 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 58 X valuation. A 23 X valuation gives a -60% lower target price 497 rupiah.
