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Picture

TOWR cashflow negative again

TOWR.jk Current 1,155 Target 769 -33%

12/3/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 33%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -30% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -87% of market cap

Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 23% 2% 3% 3%
2,095 2,568 2,619 2,697 2,791
  • Sales grew 3% in the third quarter to 2,791 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 8% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,932 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
63% 57% 54% 54% 50%
908 836 864 842 880
  • The cash margin went from 54% to 50% profit from 842 to 880 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 54% now.
  • We use a 52% cash margin to predict a 942 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
864 325 1,501 2,133 681
-561 -17,225 -1,971 -991 -1,579
  • Free cashflow went from 1,141 to -898 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,579 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -4,281 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -991 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 479 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
18,774 4,750 1,775 769 280
40,743 53,767 50,579 50,452 50,340
  • Cash declined 769 to 280 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 50,452 to 50,340 billion rupiah so net cash was down -49,683 to -50,060 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,914 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -48,146 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-16,900 -3,178 2,482 1,299 -927
78 285 35 856 28
  • TOWR.jk (raised) -900 billion rupiah in the third quarter -927 billion rupiah liabilities 28 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,914 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 57,518 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.87 X assets with a 34 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,914 billion rupiah which means a 30 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a -33% lower target price 769 rupiah.
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