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TOTL looking sharp as sales jump, cashflow strong
TOTL Current 296 Target 777 + 162%
May 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 54%
Last 5 quarters
-5% -16% 32% -24% 54%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -89% -94% -94% -94%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, -42, 59, 125, 102
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,009 -948 -854 -735 -978
Capital paid flat a 162% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
693, 727, 727, 729, 729
May 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 54%
Last 5 quarters
-5% -16% 32% -24% 54%
- Sales jumped 54% in the first quarter to 596 billion rupiah -14% below our 691 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 751 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -89% -94% -94% -94%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -94% profit climbed from 26 to 27 billion rupiah in the first quarter (lower non cash gains).
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use a lower -91% cost ratio to predict a 58 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, -42, 59, 125, 102
- Free cashflow went from 125 to 102 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -19 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 61 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -16 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 50 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,009 -948 -854 -735 -978
- Cash increased 760 to 862 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,495 to 1,840 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -735 to -978 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -42 billion rupiah equity payout -134 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -843 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat a 162% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
693, 727, 727, 729, 729
- TOTL 29 quarter capital paid was flat at 729 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 905 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,009 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.41 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 177 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 162% higher target price 777 rupiah.