TOTL a 9% yield
TOTL Current 310 Target 726 + 134%
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -13%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
387, 512, 387, 596, 518
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-106% -108% -80% -78% -93%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-42 59 125 102 24
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-948 -854 -735 -978 -943
Last 12 months capital 0% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
725 725 725 725 725
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -13%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
387, 512, 387, 596, 518
- Sales declined seasonally -13% in the second quarter to 518 billion rupiah (but cash receipts were 595 billion rupiah) -16% below our 614 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 698 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-106% -108% -80% -78% -93%
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -93% profit from 27 to 17 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -91% cost ratio to predict a 53 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-42 59 125 102 24
- Free cashflow went from 102 to 24 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -19 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 78 billion rupiah 29% of market cap.
- We assume lower -13 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 44 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-948 -854 -735 -978 -943
- Cash increased 862 to 888 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,840 to 1,831 billion rupiah so net cash improved -978 to -943 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -99 billion rupiah equity payout -77 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -866 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital 0% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
725 725 725 725 725
- TOTL 30 quarter capital stayed flat at 725 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 0 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity but will be 902 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,057 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.35 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 177 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a 134% higher target price 726 rupiah.
