TOTL at 0.36X assets
TOTL Current 316 Target 457 + 45%
11/1/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
32% -24% 54% -13% 21%
512 387 596 518 628
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-93% -89% -96% -94% -96%
24 26 27 17 22
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-32 136 121 43 32
91 -13 -19 -19 -7
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
639 760 862 888 830
1,493 1,495 1,840 1,831 1,794
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
725 725 725 725 810
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 85
11/1/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth + 23%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 25% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
- Latest net cash -89% of market cap
Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
32% -24% 54% -13% 21%
512 387 596 518 628
- Sales grew 21% in the third quarter to 628 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 13% now.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 780 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-93% -89% -96% -94% -96%
24 26 27 17 22
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -96% profit from 17 to 22 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a -93% cost ratio to predict a 47 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-32 136 121 43 32
91 -13 -19 -19 -7
- Free cashflow went from 24 to 25 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 69 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 39 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
639 760 862 888 830
1,493 1,495 1,840 1,831 1,794
- Cash declined 888 to 830 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,831 to 1,794 billion rupiah so net cash was down -943 to -964 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -16 billion rupiah equity payout -140 billion rupiah liabilities, net cash will be -824 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
725 725 725 725 810
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 85
- TOTL cumulative capital improved 725 to 810 billion rupiah with 0 & + 85 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 966 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,078 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.36 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 156 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 45% higher target price 457 rupiah.
