TOBA sales jump higher
TOBA Current 850 Target 956 + 12%
Aug 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 52%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
24% -6% 79% -37% 52%
104 98 176 111 169
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-92% -94% -93% -95% -84%
17 15 21 14 37
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-7 -4 23 -2 7
4 71 -35 -15 -4
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
19 62 69 60 52
508 475 504 506 487
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-207 -184 -203 -194 -202
13 24 -21 6 -14
3 0 3 3 7
Aug 26, 2022
1 minute read
- TOBA last 12 months sales growth was fast + 82%
- TOBA last 12 months cash flow is above average + 9% of market cap
- TOBA last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- TOBA latest net cash still high leverage -92% of market cap
Sales jumped 52%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
24% -6% 79% -37% 52%
104 98 176 111 169
- Sales jumped 52% in the second quarter to 169 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -11% now.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of 12% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 190 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-92% -94% -93% -95% -84%
17 15 21 14 37
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -84% profit from 14 to 37 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -92% now.
- We use a -88% cost ratio to predict a 33 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
-7 -4 23 -2 7
4 71 -35 -15 -4
- Free cashflow went from -17 to 3 million dollars in the second quarter with -4 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 million dollars now.
- We assume -4 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 17 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
19 62 69 60 52
508 475 504 506 487
- Cash declined 60 to 52 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 506 to 487 million dollars so net cash was up -446 to -435 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -66 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -369 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-207 -184 -203 -194 -202
13 24 -21 6 -14
3 0 3 3 7
- TOBA cumulative capital worsened -194 to -202 million dollars with -14 & + 7 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -135 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 472 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 66 million dollars vs 40 million dollars last 12m which means a 7 X valuation. An 8 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 956 rupiah.
