sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
Picture

TOBA sales up again

TOBA.jk Current 705 Target 1,156 + 64%

12/3/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 112%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -114% of market cap

Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 79% -37% 56% 20%
1,404 2,511 1,589 2,479 2,970
  • Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 2,970 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 29% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,243 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
20% 15% 19% 26% 16%
215 294 203 539 515
  • The cash margin went from 26% to 16% profit from 539 to 515 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 19% now.
  • We use a 19% cash margin to predict a 562 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-54 324 -32 98 894
1,012 -494 -213 -60 -209
  • Free cashflow went from 38 to 685 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -209 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 77 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -209 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 388 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
888 985 860 762 989
6,806 7,195 7,249 7,139 7,444
  • Cash increased 762 to 989 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 7,139 to 7,444 billion rupiah so net cash was down -6,377 to -6,455 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -218 billion rupiah equity payout -1,333 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,121 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
340 -304 82 -208 372
0 36 42 97 115
  • TOBA.jk paid 487 billion rupiah in the third quarter 372 billion rupiah liabilities 115 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,551 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 5,675 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.39 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 4% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,551 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 64% higher target price 1,156 rupiah.
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital