TOBA sales up again
TOBA.jk Current 705 Target 1,156 + 64%
12/3/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 79% -37% 56% 20%
1,404 2,511 1,589 2,479 2,970
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
20% 15% 19% 26% 16%
215 294 203 539 515
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-54 324 -32 98 894
1,012 -494 -213 -60 -209
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
888 985 860 762 989
6,806 7,195 7,249 7,139 7,444
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
340 -304 82 -208 372
0 36 42 97 115
12/3/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 112%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -114% of market cap
Sales grew 20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 79% -37% 56% 20%
1,404 2,511 1,589 2,479 2,970
- Sales grew 20% in the third quarter to 2,970 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 29% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,243 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
20% 15% 19% 26% 16%
215 294 203 539 515
- The cash margin went from 26% to 16% profit from 539 to 515 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 19% now.
- We use a 19% cash margin to predict a 562 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-54 324 -32 98 894
1,012 -494 -213 -60 -209
- Free cashflow went from 38 to 685 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -209 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 77 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -209 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 388 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
888 985 860 762 989
6,806 7,195 7,249 7,139 7,444
- Cash increased 762 to 989 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 7,139 to 7,444 billion rupiah so net cash was down -6,377 to -6,455 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -218 billion rupiah equity payout -1,333 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -5,121 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
340 -304 82 -208 372
0 36 42 97 115
- TOBA.jk paid 487 billion rupiah in the third quarter 372 billion rupiah liabilities 115 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,551 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 5,675 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.39 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,551 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 64% higher target price 1,156 rupiah.