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TLKM looking sharp as cashflow stays strong
TLKM Current 4,340 Target 6,086 + 40%
May 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -5%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 5% 3% 2% -5%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-54% -55% -56% -52% -55%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,304 3,456 8,318 6,136 7,475
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-98,221 -117,257 -110,196 -93,474 -84,491
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
102,089 100,666 128,062 113,372 117,555
May 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -5%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 5% 3% 2% -5%
- Sales declined seasonally -5% in the first quarter to 35,208 billion rupiah -4% below our 36,795 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 37,352 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-54% -55% -56% -52% -55%
- The cash cost ratio went from -52% to -55% profit from 8,285 to 7,856 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -54% now.
- We use the average -54% cost ratio to predict a 9,059 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,304 3,456 8,318 6,136 7,475
- Free cashflow went from 6,136 to 7,475 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -8,959 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,346 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -8,959 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives an 8,076 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-98,221 -117,257 -110,196 -93,474 -84,491
- Cash increased 38,311 to 41,629.billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 131,785 to 126,120 billion rupiah so net cash improved -93,474 to -84,491 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -10,676 billion rupiah equity payout -20,980 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -63,511 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
102,089 100,666 128,062 113,372 117,555
- TLKM 29 quarter capital paid improved 113,372 to 117,555 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -4,228 billion rupiah liabilities 45 billion rupiah equity & will be 144,958 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 429,930 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.52 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 27,403 billion rupiah which means an 16 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 6,086 rupiah.