TLKM sales growing faster
TLKM Current 4,230 Target 6,816 + 61%
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
35,535 36,563 37,167 35,208 36,775
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-55% -56% -52% -55% -49%
Free cashflow higher, last 12 months + 7% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,456 8,318 6,136 7,475 7,837
Balance sheet net cash down, last 12 months change + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-117,257 -110,196 -93,474 -84,491 -94,433
Capital improved, last 12 months + 6% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
100,666 128,062 113,372 117,555 127,016
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters
35,535 36,563 37,167 35,208 36,775
- Sales grew 4% in the second quarter to 36,775 billion rupiah 2% above our 35,912 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 39,378 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-55% -56% -52% -55% -49%
- The cash cost ratio went from -55% to -49% profit from 7,856 to 9,699 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -53% now.
- We use the average -53% cost ratio to predict a 9,540 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Free cashflow higher, last 12 months + 7% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,456 8,318 6,136 7,475 7,837
- Free cashflow went from 7,475 to 7,837 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -8,610 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7,442 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -8,610 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 8,440 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash down, last 12 months change + 5% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-117,257 -110,196 -93,474 -84,491 -94,433
- Cash declined 41629.0 to 40160.0 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 126,120 to 134,593 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -84,491 to -94,433 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -23,808 billion rupiah equity payout -9,953 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -80,250 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 6% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
100,666 128,062 113,372 117,555 127,016
- TLKM 30 quarter cumulative capital improved 117,555 to 127,016 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -12,929 billion rupiah from liabilities + 22,390 billion rupiah from equity & will be 160,778 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 419,033 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.53 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 33,762 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 61% higher target price 6,816 rupiah.
