sharpfokus
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA
Picture
Other stocks here

TLKM looking sharp as cashflow stays strong

TLKM Current 4,340 Target 6,086 + 40%

May 11, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined seasonally -5%
Last 5 quarters
-7% 5% 3% 2% -5%
  • Sales declined seasonally -5% in the first quarter to 35,208 billion rupiah -4% below our 36,795 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 37,352 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.

Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-54% -55% -56% -52% -55%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -52% to -55% profit from 8,285 to 7,856 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -54% now.
  • We use the average -54% cost ratio to predict a 9,059 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,304 3,456 8,318 6,136 7,475
  • Free cashflow went from 6,136 to 7,475 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -8,959 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,346 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -8,959 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives an 8,076 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.

Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-98,221 -117,257 -110,196 -93,474 -84,491
  • Cash increased 38,311 to 41,629.billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 131,785 to 126,120 billion rupiah so net cash improved -93,474 to -84,491 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -10,676 billion rupiah equity payout -20,980 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -63,511 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid improved , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
102,089 100,666 128,062 113,372 117,555
  • TLKM 29 quarter capital paid improved 113,372 to 117,555 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -4,228 billion rupiah liabilities 45 billion rupiah equity & will be 144,958 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 429,930 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.52 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 27,403 billion rupiah which means an 16 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 6,086 rupiah.
MODEL, DATA & CHARTS
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA