TLKM sales growth slows
TLKM Current 4,450 Target 4,822 + 8%
10/30/22
1 minute read
TLKM last 12 months sales growth + 1%
TLKM last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
TLKM last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
TLKM latest net cash -21% of market cap
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 2% -5% 4% 0%
36,563 37,167 35,208 36,775 36,891
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-56% -52% -55% -49% -64%
8,743 8,285 7,856 9,699 5,261
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
16,054 17,047 16,434 16,447 12,221
-7,736 -10,911 -8,959 -8,610 -9,192
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
17,491 38,311 41,629 40,160 31,657
127,687 131,785 126,120 134,593 124,564
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
128,062 113,372 117,555 127,016 138,683
27,402 -14,976 4,228 -12,929 11,624
-6 286 -45 22,390 43
10/30/22
1 minute read
TLKM last 12 months sales growth + 1%
TLKM last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
TLKM last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
TLKM latest net cash -21% of market cap
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 2% -5% 4% 0%
36,563 37,167 35,208 36,775 36,891
- Sales grew 0% in the third quarter to 36,891 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 37,617 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-56% -52% -55% -49% -64%
8,743 8,285 7,856 9,699 5,261
- The cash cost ratio went from -49% to -64% profit from 9,699 to 5,261 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -55% now.
- We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 8,904 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
16,054 17,047 16,434 16,447 12,221
-7,736 -10,911 -8,959 -8,610 -9,192
- Free cashflow went from 7,837 to 3,029 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -9,192 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,119 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -8,920 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 6,285 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
17,491 38,311 41,629 40,160 31,657
127,687 131,785 126,120 134,593 124,564
- Cash declined 40,160 to 31,657 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 134,593 to 124,564 billion rupiah so net cash was up -94,433 to -92,907 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -22,760 billion rupiah equity payout -2,378 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -84,431 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
128,062 113,372 117,555 127,016 138,683
27,402 -14,976 4,228 -12,929 11,624
-6 286 -45 22,390 43
- TLKM cumulative capital improved 127,016 to 138,683 billion rupiah with + 11,624 & + 43 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 163,822 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 440,827 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.61 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 25,139 billion rupiah (vs 24,477 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 18 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 8% higher target price 4,822 rupiah.
