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TKIM looking sharp as sales rise further
TKIM Current 7,150 Target 12,784 + 79%
Jun 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
23% -4% -14% 27% 8%
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -92% -93% -89% -91%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
18, 91, 34, 61, 56
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,370 -1,294 -1,299 -1,201 -1,120
Capital paid improved ,a 79% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
287, 356, 426, 437, 552
Jun 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters
23% -4% -14% 27% 8%
- Sales grew 8% in the first quarter to 302 million dollars 13% above our 266 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 338 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -92% -93% -89% -91%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -91% profit from 73 to 74 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a lower -88% cost ratio to predict a 81 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
18, 91, 34, 61, 56
- Free cashflow went from 61 to 56 million dollars in the first quarter with 2 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 60 million dollars now.
- We assume 0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 42 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,370 -1,294 -1,299 -1,201 -1,120
- Cash declined 205 to 141 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,406 to 1,261 million dollars so net cash improved -1,201 to -1,120 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -158 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -962 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved ,a 79% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
287, 356, 426, 437, 552
- TKIM 25 quarter capital paid improved 437 to 552 million dollars in the first quarter with a -116 million dollars liabilities payment & will be 710 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,590 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.5 X assets with a 19 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 158 million dollars which means a 10 X valuation. An 18 X valuation gives a 79% higher target price 12,784 rupiah.