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TKIM looking sharper again as sales jump, Cashflow rises
TKIM Current 6,775 Target 12,624 + 86%
Apr 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters
8% 23% -4% -14% 27%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-107% -83% -92% -93% -89%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
30, 18, 91, 34, 61
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,400 -1,370 -1,294 -1,299 -1,201
Capital paid improved, a 86% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
282, 287, 356, 426, 437
Apr 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 27%
Last 5 quarters
8% 23% -4% -14% 27%
- Sales jumped 27% in the fourth quarter to 280 million dollars 11% above our 253 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 318 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-107% -83% -92% -93% -89%
- The cash cost ratio went from -93% to -89% profit from 57 to 73 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -89% now.
- We use a lower -88% cost ratio to predict a 74 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
30, 18, 91, 34, 61
- Free cashflow went from 34 to 61 million dollars in the fourth quarter with 16 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 51 million dollars now.
- We assume 0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 39 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,400 -1,370 -1,294 -1,299 -1,201
- Cash increased 157 to 205 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,456 to 1,406 million dollars so net cash improved -1,299 to -1,201 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -140 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,061 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 86% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
282, 287, 356, 426, 437
- TKIM 24 quarters capital paid improved 426 to 437 million dollars in the fourth quarter with a -11 million dollars payment & will be 577 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,507 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.5 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 140 million dollars which means an 11 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 86% higher target price 12,624 rupiah.