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Picture
TKIM.jk Cashflow more negative

Current 7,100 Target 8,287 + 17%

1/3/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 41%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -0% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -83% of market cap

Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-15% 27% 8% 1% 2%
3,156 ; 3,998 ; 4,327 ; 4,386 ; 4,463 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 4,463 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 1% now.
  • This brings the average to 10% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,442 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
63% 56% 53% 58% 122%
820 ; 1,048 ; 1,060 ; 1,374 ; 2,788 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 58% to 122% profit from 1,374 to 2,788 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 72% now.
  • We use a 11% cash margin from cashflow to predict a -1,089 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
537 ; 619 ; 762 ; -110 ; -754 billion rupiah
-63 ; 234 ; 26 ; -119 ; -159 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -229 to -912 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -159 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 125 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -159 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 430 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
2,249 ; 2,926 ; 2,020 ; 2,844 ; 3,031 billion rupiah
20,862 ; 20,071 ; 18,066 ; 19,908 ; 21,375 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 2,844 to 3,031 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 19,908 to 21,375 billion rupiah so net cash was down -17,064 to -18,343 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,720 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -16,624 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
927 ; 154 ; 1,656 ; -929 ; -971 billion rupiah
75 ; 1 ; 0 ; 0 ; 82 billion rupiah
  • TKIM.jk (raised) -889 billion rupiah in the third quarter -971 billion rupiah liabilities 82 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,720 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 22,104 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.46 X assets with a 26 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,720 billion rupiah which means a 13 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 8,287 rupiah.
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