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Picture

TIRA looking dull with an expensive valuation

TIRA Current 390 Target 154 -61%

May 18, 2022
1 minute read
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Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-18% 7% -19% 35% -5%
  • Sales declined -5% in the third quarter to 62 billion rupiah which is 11% higher than a year ago.
  • This brings the average to 4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 68 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2022.
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Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-99% -95% -101% -97% -99%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -99% profit from 1 to -0.1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
  • We use the average -98% cost ratio to predict a 1 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2022.
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Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-8, 2, 7, -24, 9
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -24 to 9 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter 2022.
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Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-177 -175 -168 -189 -186
  • Cash increased 6 to 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 195 to 197 billion rupiah so net cash improved -189 to -186 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -182 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital raised improved , a -61% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-33, -30, -18, -41, -35
  • TIRA 66 quarter capital raised improved -41 to -35 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -31 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 229 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.64 X assets with a 96 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 4 billion rupiah which means a high 63 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -61% lower target price 154 rupiah.
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