sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • mm
  • Capital
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DUTI
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • MCOL
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • MYOH
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • PPRO
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • SMDR
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TCID
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • CMG
  • CVX
  • BP
  • CVX
  • CL
  • META US
  • GOLD
  • FCX
  • MAR
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MA
  • NKE
  • PEP
  • PG
  • PLTR
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • V
  • WMT
  • WY
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TXN
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • BERK
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • KIJA
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • IATA
  • Above
  • Untitled
  • ALF
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
  • Subcapital
  • Kings
  • Weekly2
Picture

TIRA looking dull with an expensive valuation

TIRA Current 390 Target 154 -61%

May 18, 2022
1 minute read
​
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-18% 7% -19% 35% -5%
  • Sales declined -5% in the third quarter to 62 billion rupiah which is 11% higher than a year ago.
  • This brings the average to 4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 68 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2022.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-99% -95% -101% -97% -99%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -99% profit from 1 to -0.1 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
  • We use the average -98% cost ratio to predict a 1 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2022.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-8, 2, 7, -24, 9
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -24 to 9 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 1 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter 2022.
​
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-177 -175 -168 -189 -186
  • Cash increased 6 to 11 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 195 to 197 billion rupiah so net cash improved -189 to -186 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -182 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital raised improved , a -61% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-33, -30, -18, -41, -35
  • TIRA 66 quarter capital raised improved -41 to -35 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -31 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 229 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.64 X assets with a 96 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 4 billion rupiah which means a high 63 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -61% lower target price 154 rupiah.
MODEL, DATA & CHARTS
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • mm
  • Capital
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DUTI
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • MCOL
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • MYOH
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • PPRO
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • SMDR
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TCID
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • CMG
  • CVX
  • BP
  • CVX
  • CL
  • META US
  • GOLD
  • FCX
  • MAR
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MA
  • NKE
  • PEP
  • PG
  • PLTR
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • V
  • WMT
  • WY
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TXN
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • BERK
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • KIJA
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • IATA
  • Above
  • Untitled
  • ALF
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
  • Subcapital
  • Kings
  • Weekly2