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TINS looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast
TINS Current 1,670 Target 2,840 * 70%
May 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -10%
Last 5 quarters
-27% 40% 12% 28% -10%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -86% -85% -81% -82%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
723, 1,342, 228, 632, 1,790
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,873 -6,999 -7,113 -6,601 -5,285
Capital raised improved , a 70% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,674 -2,904 -2,489 -1,616 -156
May 19, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -10%
Last 5 quarters
-27% 40% 12% 28% -10%
- Sales declined seasonally -10% in the first quarter to 4,393 billion rupiah -19% below our 5,399 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,033 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -86% -85% -81% -82%
- The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -82% profit from 691 to 602 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use the latest -82% cost ratio to predict a 716 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
723, 1,342, 228, 632, 1,790
- Free cashflow went from 632 to 1,790 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -211 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 998 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -211 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 690 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,873 -6,999 -7,113 -6,601 -5,285
- Cash increased 1,782 to 2,113 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 8,383 to 7,398 billion rupiah so net cash improved -6,601 to -5,285 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -824 billion rupiah equity payout -1,372 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,466 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 70% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,674 -2,904 -2,489 -1,616 -156
- TINS 29 quarter capital raised improved -1,616 to -156 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -963 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,040 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 12,438 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.83 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,644 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 70% higher target price 2,840 rupiah.