TINS sales down again
TINS Current 1,500 Target 1,829 + 22%
Sep 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -30%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
40% 12% 28% -10% -30%
3,424 3,829 4,908 4,393 3,086
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -85% -81% -82% -78%
260 342 691 602 481
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,501 425 902 2,001 576
-158 -197 -271 -211 -226
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,286 1,102 1,782 2,113 1,940
8,285 8,215 8,383 7,398 7,324
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-2,904, -2,489, -1,616, -156, 354
672, 414, 207, 963, 55
0 0 0 0 456
Sep 3, 2022
1 minute read
- TINS last 12 months sales growth -10%
- TINS last 12 months cash flow 6X average + 27% of market cap
- TINS last 12 months Capital 29X average + 29% of market cap
- TINS latest net cash -48% of market cap
Sales declined -30%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
40% 12% 28% -10% -30%
3,424 3,829 4,908 4,393 3,086
- Sales declined -30% in the second quarter to 3,086 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 10% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,738 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-86% -85% -81% -82% -78%
260 342 691 602 481
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -78% profit from 602 to 481 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -80% cost ratio to predict a 549 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,501 425 902 2,001 576
-158 -197 -271 -211 -226
- Free cashflow went from 1,790 to 350 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -226 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 750 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -218 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 486 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,286 1,102 1,782 2,113 1,940
8,285 8,215 8,383 7,398 7,324
- Cash declined 2,113 to 1,940 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 7,398 to 7,324 billion rupiah so net cash was down -5,285 to -5,384 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -611 billion rupiah equity payout -1,335 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,049 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-2,904, -2,489, -1,616, -156, 354
672, 414, 207, 963, 55
0 0 0 0 456
- TINS cumulative capital improved -156 to 354 billion rupiah with + 55 & + 456 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 2,300 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 11,172 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,946 billion rupiah (vs 3,000 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 22% higher target price 1, 829 rupiah.
