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TINS looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast

TINS Current 1,670 Target 2,840 * 70%

May 19, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined seasonally -10%
Last 5 quarters
-27% 40% 12% 28% -10%
  • Sales declined seasonally -10% in the first quarter to 4,393 billion rupiah -19% below our 5,399 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 17% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,033 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -86% -85% -81% -82%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -81% to -82% profit from 691 to 602 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -84% now.
  • We use the latest -82% cost ratio to predict a 716 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
723, 1,342, 228, 632, 1,790
  • Free cashflow went from 632 to 1,790 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -211 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 998 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -211 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 690 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
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Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,873 -6,999 -7,113 -6,601 -5,285
  • Cash increased 1,782 to 2,113 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 8,383 to 7,398 billion rupiah so net cash improved -6,601 to -5,285 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -824 billion rupiah equity payout -1,372 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,466 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital raised improved , a 70% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,674 -2,904 -2,489 -1,616 -156
  • TINS 29 quarter capital raised improved -1,616 to -156 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -963 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,040 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 12,438 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.83 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,644 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 70% higher target price 2,840 rupiah.
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