TINS 5% yield forecast
TINS Current 1,405 Target 1,679 + 19%
11/9/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -12%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 28% -10% -30% -12%
3,829 4,908 4,393 3,086 2,703
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-85% -81% -82% -78% -91%
342 691 602 481 64
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
425 902 2,001 576 345
-197 -271 -211 -226 -175
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,102 1,782 2,115 1,940 1,401
8,215 8,383 7,398 7,324 6,129
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2,489 -1,616 -156 354 1,047
414 207 963 55 98
0 0 0 456 595
11/9/2022
1 minute read
- TINS last 12 months sales growth -29%
- TINS last 12 months cash flow + 28% of market cap
- TINS last 12 months Capital + 34% of market cap
- TINS latest net cash -45% of market cap
Sales declined -12%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
12% 28% -10% -30% -12%
3,829 4,908 4,393 3,086 2,703
- Sales declined -12% in the third quarter to 2,703 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 10% now.
- This brings the average to -6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,513 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-85% -81% -82% -78% -91%
342 691 602 481 64
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -91% profit from 481 to 64 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use a -83% cost ratio to predict a 420 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
425 902 2,001 576 345
-197 -271 -211 -226 -175
- Free cashflow went from 350 to 169 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -175 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 735 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -204 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 368 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,102 1,782 2,115 1,940 1,401
8,215 8,383 7,398 7,324 6,129
- Cash declined 1,940 to 1,401 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 7,324 to 6,129 billion rupiah so net cash was up -5,384 to -4,728 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -482 billion rupiah equity payout -989 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,739 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-2,489 -1,616 -156 354 1,047
414 207 963 55 98
0 0 0 456 595
- TINS cumulative capital improved 354 to 1,047 billion rupiah with + 98 & + 595 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 2,519 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,464 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.78 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,471 billion rupiah (vs 2,941 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 19% higher target price 1,679 rupiah.
