TGKA big investment gain
TGKA.jk Current 7,050 Target 8,031+ 14%
12/19/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -1%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
5% -2% 4% 6% -1%
3,022 ; 2,960 ; 3,072 ; 3,252 ; 3,221
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
4% 5% 5% 4% 4%
99 ; 131 ; 123 ; 105 ; 93
Cashflow higher on investment gain
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
328 ; -70 ; 380 ; -62 ; 281
-243 ; 57 ; -444 ; 197 ; 400
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
339 ; 326 ; 261 ; 126 ; 807
1,960 ; 1,643 ; 2,278 ; 2,015 ; 2,056
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
32 ; 0 ; 0 ; 271 ; 0
12/19/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 7%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 11% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -19% of market cap
Sales declined seasonally -1%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
5% -2% 4% 6% -1%
3,022 ; 2,960 ; 3,072 ; 3,252 ; 3,221
- Sales declined -1% in the third quarter to 3,221 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,383 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
4% 5% 5% 4% 4%
99 ; 131 ; 123 ; 105 ; 93
- The cash margin was flat at 4% profit declined from 105 to 93 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 4% now.
- We use a 4% cash margin to predict a 122 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher on investment gain
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
328 ; -70 ; 380 ; -62 ; 281
-243 ; 57 ; -444 ; 197 ; 400
- Free cashflow went from 136 to 680 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 400 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 185 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 142 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
339 ; 326 ; 261 ; 126 ; 807
1,960 ; 1,643 ; 2,278 ; 2,015 ; 2,056
- Cash increased 126 to 807 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,015 to 2,056 billion rupiah so net cash was up -1,889 to -1,249 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -164 billion rupiah equity payout -381 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -846 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
32 ; 0 ; 0 ; 271 ; 0
- TGKA.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 545 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 6,475 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.68 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 567 billion rupiah which means a 11 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 14% higher target price 8,031 rupiah.