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TECH, a -72% lower target price
Current 6,200 Target 1,730 -72%
January 7 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 19%
Costs -14 points, profit up
Cashflow slumped
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, a -72% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 19%
- Sales grew 19% in the third quarter to 6 billion rupiah & were up 217% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 28% growth.
- We predict average growth of 14% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 10 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs -14 points, profit up
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -65% profit from 1 to 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the latest -65% cost ratio to predict a 3 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow slumped
- Free cashflow slumped from 1 to -3 billion rupiah in the third quarter even with 0 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 0 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 4 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash declined 44 to 40 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities were flat at 6 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 38 to 35 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be back up to 46 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -72% lower target price
- TECH capital from the last 19 quarters improved -39 to -38 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -1 billion rupiah liability payment & will be -37 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,789 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 108.69 X assets with a 1.5 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 14 billion rupiah which means an 538 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -72% lower target price of 1,730 rupiah.