TCPI, expensive, a -25% lower target price
Current 10,200 Target 7,617 -25%
January 5th, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 37%
Costs up 1 point, profit up
Cashflow higher
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, expensive, a -25% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 37%
- Sales jumped 37% in the third quarter to 494 billion rupiah & are up 7% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 611 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up 1 point, profit up
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -83% profit from 10 to 27 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use a lower -78% cost ratio to predict a 74 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow higher
- Free cashflow went from -2 to 29 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -59 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 55 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -59 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 73 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash increased 70 to 117 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,277 to 1,342 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,207 to -1,225 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -78 billion rupiah equity payout -176 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,049 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, expensive, a -25% lower target price
- TCPI capital from the last 23 quarters worsened 810 to 792 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 49 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be higher at 1,046 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 51,000 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 17.95 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 254 billion rupiah which means an 201 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -25% lower target price of 7,617 rupiah.