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TCPI, expensive, a -25% lower target price
Current 10,200 Target 7,617 -25%

January 5th, 2022
1 minute read

Sales jumped 37%

• Sales jumped 37% in the third quarter to 494 billion rupiah & are up 7% from a year ago.
• This brings the quarterly average to 4% growth.
• We predict faster average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 611 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs up 1 point, profit up

• The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -83% profit from 10 to 27 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -75% now.
• We use a lower -78% cost ratio to predict a 74 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow higher

• Free cashflow went from -2 to 29 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -59 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at 55 billion rupiah now.
• We assume the same -59 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 73 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet higher leverage

• Cash increased 70 to 117 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased 1,277 to 1,342 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -1,207 to -1,225 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -78 billion rupiah equity payout -176 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,049 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

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Valuation, expensive, a -25% lower target price

• TCPI capital from the last 23 quarters worsened 810 to 792 billion rupiah in the third quarter​ with 49 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be higher at 1,046 billion rupiah in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 51,000 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 17.95 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 0% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 254 billion rupiah which means an 201 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -25% lower target price of 7,617 rupiah.

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