TBLA forever negative cashflow
TBLA Current 775 Target 589 -24%
Aug 16, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-4% 28% 14% -21% 8%
3,338 4,262 4,880 3,851 4,152
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-89% -88% -91% -89% -91%
185 172 239 203 179
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
414 66 702 -521 -433
-264 -362 -283 -271 -431
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
354 479 690 730 342
13,457 14,428 14,592 15,119 15,612
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,013 -5,430 -5,223 -6,053 -6,458
32 -549 206 -829 -406
0 132 -0 0 0
Aug 16, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow -37% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -35% of market cap
- Latest net cash -373% of market cap
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-4% 28% 14% -21% 8%
3,338 4,262 4,880 3,851 4,152
- Sales grew 8% in the second quarter to 4,152 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -4% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,406 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-89% -88% -91% -89% -91%
185 172 239 203 179
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -91% profit from 203 to 179 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 237 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
414 66 702 -521 -433
-264 -362 -283 -271 -431
- Free cashflow went from -792 to -864 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -431 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -383 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the latest -431 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
354 479 690 730 342
13,457 14,428 14,592 15,119 15,612
- Cash declined 730 to 342 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 15,119 to 15,612 billion rupiah so net cash was down -14,389 to -15,270 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -6 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -15,173 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-5,013 -5,430 -5,223 -6,053 -6,458
32 -549 206 -829 -406
0 132 -0 0 0
- TBLA cumulative capital worsened -6,053 to -6,458 billion rupiah with -406 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -6,452 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,090 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.18 X assets with a 3,562 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6 billion rupiah which means a 658 X valuation. A 500 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 589 rupiah.
