TBLA, a -11% lower target price
Current 790 Target 705 -11%
December 2nd 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 28%
Costs 1 point lower, but slightly lower profit
Cashflow, negative again …
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, more capital raised, a -11% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 28%
- Sales jumped 28% in the third quarter to 4,262 billion rupiah vs our 3,505 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,700 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 1 point lower, but slightly lower profit
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point lower at -88% in the third quarter but with higher non cash costs giving a 172 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio remains much higher at -97% now.
- We use a -91% cost ratio to predict a lower 67 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, negative again …
- Free cashflow was negative again at -296 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -362 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is negative -125 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -282 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 117 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash increased from 354 to 479 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 13,457 to 14,428 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -13,103 to -13,949 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -13,500 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, more capital raised, a -11% lower target price
- TBLA capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -5,411 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 549 billion rupiah new liabilities & a -132 billion rupiah equity payout but will improve to -4,997 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,169 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 49 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 414 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a -11% lower target price of 705 rupiah.