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TBLA, a -11% lower target price
Current 790 Target 705 -11%

December 2nd 2021
1 minute read

Sales jumped 28%
  • Sales jumped 28% in the third quarter to 4,262 billion rupiah vs our 3,505 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 16% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,700 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 1 point lower, but slightly lower profit
  • The cash cost ratio was 1 point lower at -88% in the third quarter but with higher non cash costs giving a 172 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio remains much higher at -97% now.
  • We use a -91% cost ratio to predict a lower 67 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow, negative again …
  • Free cashflow was negative again at -296 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -362 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is negative -125 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -282 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 117 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, higher leverage
  • Cash increased from 354 to 479 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 13,457 to 14,428 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -13,103 to -13,949 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -13,500 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, more capital raised, a -11% lower target price
  • TBLA capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -5,411 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 549 billion rupiah new liabilities & a -132 billion rupiah equity payout but will improve to -4,997 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 4,169 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 49 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 414 billion rupiah which means an 10 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a -11% lower target price of 705 rupiah.