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Picture

TBIG value too big

TBIG.jk Current 2,300 Target 1,790 -22%

11/30/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 2%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -3% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -57% of market cap
​
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
3% 2% 1% 1% -3%
1,591 1,618 1,642 1,662 1,618
  • Sales declined -3% in the third quarter to 1,618 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 0% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,651 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
45% 47% 43% 50% 49%
430 481 430 419 410
  1. The cash margin went from 50% to 49% profit from 419 to 410 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  2. The average cash margin is at 47% now.
  3. We use a 47% cash margin to predict a 423 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
125 328 1,019 912 238
-543 -1,299 -671 -935 -1,249
  • Free cashflow went from -23 to -1,011 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,249 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -414 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -671 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 101 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
842 629 720 718 710
31,983 32,081 31,912 29,520 30,223
  • Cash declined 718 to 710 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 29,520 to 30,223 billion rupiah so net cash was down -28,802 to -29,513 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -405 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -29,108 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-372 -743 987 3,010 -2,355
7 -7 0 -2,539 146
  • TBIG.jk (raised) -2,209 billion rupiah in the third quarter -2,355 billion rupiah liabilities 146 billion rupiah equity , will pay 405 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 52,075 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.17 X assets with a 109 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 405 billion rupiah which means a 128 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -22% lower target price 1,790 rupiah.
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