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TBIG less dull as cashflow positive
TBIG Current 2,790 Target 2,317 -17%
May 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 9% 3% 2% 1%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-60% -56% -55% -53% -57%
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
204, -3,763, -418, -972, 349
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-27,299 -31,725 -31,141 -31,452 -31,192
Capital raised improved , a -17% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,713 -13,698 -14,062 -14,812 -13,826
May 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
2% 9% 3% 2% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 1,642 billion rupiah -1% below our 1,650 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,846 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-60% -56% -55% -53% -57%
- The cash cost ratio went from -53% to -57% profit from 481 to 430 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -55% now.
- We use the average -55% cost ratio to predict a 546 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
204, -3,763, -418, -972, 349
- Free cashflow went positive from -972 to 349 billion rupiah in the first quarter with higher -671 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,201 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -543 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 282 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-27,299 -31,725 -31,141 -31,452 -31,192
- Cash increased 629 to 720 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 32,081 to 31,912 billion rupiah so net cash improved -31,452 to -31,192 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -211 billion rupiah equity payout -852 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -30,340 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -17% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,713 -13,698 -14,062 -14,812 -13,826
- TBIG 49 quarter capital raised improved -14,812 to -13,826 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -987 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -12,764 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 63,213 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.5 X assets with a 39 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,050 billion rupiah which means a 60 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price 2,317 rupiah.