TBIG expensive
TBIG Current 2,870 Target 1,822 -37%
Sep 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
9% 3% 2% 1% 1%
1,549 1,591 1,618 1,642 1,662
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-56% -55% -53% -57% -50%
406 430 481 430 419
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
666 125 328 1,019 912
-4,429 -543 -1,299 -671 -935
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
894 842 629 720 718
32,619 31,983 32,081 31,912 29,520
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-13,698 -14,062 -14,812 -13,826 -13,354
309 -372 -743 987 3,010
706 7 -7 0 -2,539
Sep 13, 2022
1 minute read
- TBIG last 12 months sales growth + 7%
- TBIG last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- TBIG last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- TBIG latest net cash -44% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
9% 3% 2% 1% 1%
1,549 1,591 1,618 1,642 1,662
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 1,662 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,764 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-56% -55% -53% -57% -50%
406 430 481 430 419
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -50% profit from 430 to 419 billion rupiah in the second quarter on non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -54% now.
- We use the average -54% cost ratio to predict a 409 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
666 125 328 1,019 912
-4,429 -543 -1,299 -671 -935
- Free cashflow went negative from 349 to -23 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -935 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -266 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -671 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives positive 130 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
894 842 629 720 718
32,619 31,983 32,081 31,912 29,520
- Cash declined 720 to 718 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 31,912 to 29,520 billion rupiah so net cash was up -31,192 to -28,802 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -521 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -28,281 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-13,698 -14,062 -14,812 -13,826 -13,354
309 -372 -743 987 3,010
706 7 -7 0 -2,539
- TBIG cumulative capital improved -13,826 to -13,354 billion rupiah with + 3,010 & -2,539 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -12,833 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 65,687 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.5 X assets with a 81 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 521 billion rupiah (vs -1,064 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 126 X valuation. A 80 X valuation gives a -37% lower target price 1,822 rupiah.
