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TAPG looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast
TAPG Current 670 Target 1,391 + 108%
May 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -36%
Last 5 quarters
-4% 11% 6% 114% -36%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -79% -77% -84% -67%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 153, 244, 386, 455
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,060 -4,017 -3,649 -3,370 -3,065
Capital paid improved , a 108% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,397 2,394 2,811 2,973 3,135
May 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -36%
Last 5 quarters
-4% 11% 6% 114% -36%
- Sales declined seasonally -36% in the first quarter to 2,191 billion rupiah -20% below our 2,738 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 24% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,827 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -79% -77% -84% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -67% profit from 462 to 904 billion rupiah in the first quarter with big JV income too.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 836 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 153, 244, 386, 455
- Free cashflow went from 386 to 455 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -162 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 310 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -162 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 482 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,060 -4,017 -3,649 -3,370 -3,065
- Cash increased 1,280 to 1,576 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,650 to 4,641 billion rupiah so net cash improved -3,370 to -3,065 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -977 billion rupiah equity payout -861 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,156 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 108% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,397 2,394 2,811 2,973 3,135
- TAPG 13 quarter capital paid improved 2,973 to 3,135 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -162 billion rupiah payment & will be 4,973 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,301 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.90 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,841 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 108% higher target price 1,391 rupiah.