sharpfokus
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA
Picture
Other stocks here

TAPG looking sharp with a 7% yield forecast

TAPG Current 670 Target 1,391 + 108%

May 3, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined seasonally -36%
Last 5 quarters
-4% 11% 6% 114% -36%
  • Sales declined seasonally -36% in the first quarter to 2,191 billion rupiah -20% below our 2,738 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 24% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,827 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
​
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -79% -77% -84% -67%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -67% profit from 462 to 904 billion rupiah in the first quarter with big JV income too.
  • The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
  • We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 836 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
45, 153, 244, 386, 455
  • Free cashflow went from 386 to 455 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -162 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 310 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -162 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 482 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,060 -4,017 -3,649 -3,370 -3,065
  • Cash increased 1,280 to 1,576 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 4,650 to 4,641 billion rupiah so net cash improved -3,370 to -3,065 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -977 billion rupiah equity payout -861 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,156 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid improved , a 108% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,397 2,394 2,811 2,973 3,135
  • TAPG 13 quarter capital paid improved 2,973 to 3,135 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -162 billion rupiah payment & will be 4,973 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 13,301 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.90 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,841 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a 108% higher target price 1,391 rupiah.
MODEL, DATA & CHARTS
  • Files1
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BNII
  • ITMG
  • MEGA
  • MPMX
  • MTEL
  • NISP
  • VICI
  • WOMF4
  • Home
  • CVX
  • FB
  • MAR
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • WEHA
  • stockbit
  • TIRA