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TAPG looking sharp as cashflow almost doubles & still with a 7% yield forecast
TAPG Current 655 Target 1,603 + 145%
Jul 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters
11% 6% 114% -36% 11%
Costs flat, profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -77% -84% -67% -67%
Cashflow almost doubled
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
153, 244, 386, 455, 774
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,017 -3,649 -3,370 -3,065 -3,085
Cumulative capital paid improved , a 145% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,394, 2,811, 2,973, 3,135, 3,816
Jul 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters
11% 6% 114% -36% 11%
- Sales grew 11% in the second quarter to 2,424 billion rupiah -4% below our 2,520 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 24% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,749 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat, profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -77% -84% -67% -67%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -67% profit increased from 904 to 940 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use the average -74% cost ratio to predict a 863 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow almost doubled
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
153, 244, 386, 455, 774
- Free cashflow almost doubled from 455 to 774 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 6 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 465 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -122 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives an average 568 billion rupiah Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,017 -3,649 -3,370 -3,065 -3,085
- Cash increased 1,576 to 1,685 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,641 to 4,770 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,065 to -3,085 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -950 billion rupiah equity payout -885 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -1,762 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Cumulative capital paid improved , a 145% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,394, 2,811, 2,973, 3,135, 3,816
- TAPG 14 quarter cumulative capital paid improved 3,135 to 3,816 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 185 billion rupiah from liabilities + 496 billion rupiah from equity & will be 5,652 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,003 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.84 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,274 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a 145% higher target price 1,603 rupiah.
