TAPG 5% yield forecast
TAPG Current 680 Target 1,180 + 74%
Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 114% -36% 11% -12%
1,597 3,422 2,191 2,424 2,132
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-77% -84% -67% -67% -75%
319 462 904 940 577
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
406 555 617 768 810
-162 -168 -162 6 -237
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,047 1,280 1,576 1,685 1,539
4,696 4,650 4,641 4,770 4,275
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
2,811 2,973 3,135 3,816 4,550
164 163 162 185 733
252 0 0 496 0
Oct 25, 2022
1 minute read
- TAPG last 12 months sales growth + 33%
- TAPG last 12 months cash flow + 16% of market cap
- TAPG last 12 months Capital + 13% of market cap
- TAPG latest net cash -20% of market cap
Sales declined -12%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
6% 114% -36% 11% -12%
1,597 3,422 2,191 2,424 2,132
- Sales declined -12% in the third quarter to 2,132 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -6% now.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,327 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-77% -84% -67% -67% -75%
319 462 904 940 577
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -75% profit from 940 to 577 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -73% now.
- We use the average -73% cost ratio to predict a 668 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
406 555 617 768 810
-162 -168 -162 6 -237
- Free cashflow went from 774 to 573 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -237 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 547 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -140 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 451 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,047 1,280 1,576 1,685 1,539
4,696 4,650 4,641 4,770 4,275
- Cash declined 1,685 to 1,539 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,770 to 4,275 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,085 to -2,736 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -730 billion rupiah equity payout -793 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -1,663 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
2,811 2,973 3,135 3,816 4,550
164 163 162 185 733
252 0 0 496 0
- TAPG cumulative capital improved 3,816 to 4,550 billion rupiah with + 733 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 6,073 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 13,500 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.90 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,803 billion rupiah (vs 2,189 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 74% higher target price 1,180 rupiah.
