SWBI very sharp with a 15% yield forecast
SWBI Current 13 Target 23 + 78%
1 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
25% -47% -7% -33% 13%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -50% -62% -64% -63%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
115, 103, -8, 2, 17
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-67 -22 2 -36 -16
Capital paid improved , a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
459, 502, 507, 560, 564
1 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 13%
Last 5 quarters
25% -47% -7% -33% 13%
- Sales grew 13% in the first quarter to 121 million dollars but are down -63% from a year ago.
- This brings the average to -18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 143 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -50% -62% -64% -63%
- The cash cost ratio went from -64% to -63% profit from 30 to 37 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use the average -60% cost ratio to predict a 50 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
115, 103, -8, 2, 17
- Free cashflow went from 2 to 17 million dollars in the first quarter with -9 million dollars investment spending (but would have been 36 million dollars excluding working capital).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 29 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -6 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 51 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-67 -22 2 -36 -16
- Cash increased 107 to 121 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 143 to 137 million dollars so net cash improved -36 to -16 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -93 million dollars equity payout -25 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be positive 69 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 78% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
459, 502, 507, 560, 564
- SWBI 29 quarter capital paid improved 560 to 564 million dollars in the first quarter with 0 million dollars liabilities + 4 million dollars equity & will be 682 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 601 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.09 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 15% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 178 million dollars which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 78% higher target price 23 dollars.
