STTP expensive
STTP.jk Current 7,850 Target 7,109 -9%
11/19/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 26%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
25% 7% -1% -10% 26%
1,121 1,197 1,182 1,060 1,333
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-84% -84% -84% -85% -86%
169 185 164 92 163
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
202 248 178 -72 267
-172 -210 -197 39 -219
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
156 207 178 147 196
599 618 676 557 659
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1 -11 197 -185 2
0 0 0 0 -0
11/19/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 19%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -5% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 26%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
25% 7% -1% -10% 26%
1,121 1,197 1,182 1,060 1,333
- Sales grew seasonally 26% in the third quarter to 1,333 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,512 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-84% -84% -84% -85% -86%
169 185 164 92 163
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -86% profit from 92 to 163 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use a -85% cost ratio to predict a 208 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
202 248 178 -72 267
-172 -210 -197 39 -219
- Free cashflow went from -32 to 47 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -219 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 9 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -126 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 86 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
156 207 178 147 196
599 618 676 557 659
- Cash increased 147 to 196 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 557 to 659 billion rupiah so net cash was down -410 to -463 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -312 billion rupiah equity payout -0 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -430 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1 -11 197 -185 2
0 0 0 0 -0
- STTP.jk paid 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2 billion rupiah liabilities -0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 312 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 10,284 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.13 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 345 billion rupiah which means a 30 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a -9% lower target price 7,109 rupiah.
