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SSMS less dull as sales rise, but cashflow still held back by high investment spending
SSMS Current 1,145 Target 1,790 + 56%
Apr 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters
31% -14% 15% 8% 12%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -70% -50% -79% -67%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
250 -20 235 -6 112
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,997 -6,087 -6,203 -6,032 -5,910
Capital raised worsened, a 56% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,575 -1,506 -1,193 -1,151 -1,180
Apr 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 12%
Last 5 quarters
31% -14% 15% 8% 12%
- Sales grew 12% in the fourth quarter to 1,514 billion rupiah 2% above our 1,486 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,754 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -70% -50% -79% -67%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -67% profit from 334 to 493 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use the latest -67% cost ratio to predict a 507 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
250 -20 235 -6 112
- Free cashflow went from -6 to 112 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with high -271 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 80 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -199 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 387 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,997 -6,087 -6,203 -6,032 -5,910
- Cash increased 1,720 to 1,833 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- Liabilities declined 7,752 to 7,743 billion rupiah so net cash improved -6,032 to -5,910 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,421 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -4,489 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened, a 56% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,575 -1,506 -1,193 -1,151 -1,180
- SSMS 24 quarters capital raised worsened -1,151 to -1,180 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 29 billion rupiah new liabilities but will turn positive 241 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 10,906 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.76 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,421 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 56% higher target price 1,790 rupiah.