SSIA cashflow at zero
SSIA.jk Current 298 Target 325 + 9%
11/26/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
23% 84% -20% 2% 18%
522 960 766 782 920
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-6% 7% -3% 25% 5%
-79 82 -66 158 4
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-368 245 -286 -19 29
21 -39 -20 486 -29
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
665 782 711 1,148 1,128
3,856 3,702 4,045 4,097 4,161
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
51 92 -236 22 9
-0 0 0 12 0
11/26/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 76%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 27% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -7% of market cap
- Latest net cash -224% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
23% 84% -20% 2% 18%
522 960 766 782 920
- Sales grew 18% in the third quarter to 920 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,074 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
-6% 7% -3% 25% 5%
-79 82 -66 158 4
- The cash margin went from 25% to 5% profit from 158 to 4 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 9% now.
- We use a 7% cash margin to predict a 35 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-368 245 -286 -19 29
21 -39 -20 486 -29
- Free cashflow went from 467 to 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -29 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 92 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -29 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 46 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
665 782 711 1,148 1,128
3,856 3,702 4,045 4,097 4,161
- Cash declined 1,148 to 1,128 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,097 to 4,161 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,949 to -3,033 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -185 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,848 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
51 92 -236 22 9
-0 0 0 12 0
- SSIA.jk paid 9 billion rupiah in the third quarter 9 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 185 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 1,355 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.16 X assets with a 51 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 185 billion rupiah which means a 7 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price 325 rupiah.
