SSIA at break even
SSIA Current 366 Target 374 + 2%
Sep 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-5% 23% 84% -20% 2%
424 522 960 766 782
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-137% -182% -77% -156% -102%
-116 -79 82 -66 158
Cashflow positive with investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-158 -368 245 -286 -19
-7 21 -39 -20 486
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,062 665 782 711 1,148
3,827 3,856 3,702 4,045 4,097
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-604 -554 -462 -697 -668
-448 51 92 -236 22
19 -0 0 0 12
Sep 13, 2022
1 minute read
- SSIA last 12 months sales growth 4X average + 85%
- SSIA last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
- SSIA last 12 months Capital -4% of market cap
- SSIA latest net cash -177% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-5% 23% 84% -20% 2%
424 522 960 766 782
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 782 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 22% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 905 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-137% -182% -77% -156% -102%
-116 -79 82 -66 158
- The cash cost ratio went from -156% to -102% profit from -66 to 158 billion rupiah in the second quarter with extraordinary gains.
- The average cost ratio is at -129% now.
- We use a -99% cost ratio to predict a -33 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive with investment gains
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-158 -368 245 -286 -19
-7 21 -39 -20 486
- Free cashflow went from -305 to 467 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 486 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 5 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 5 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,062 665 782 711 1,148
3,827 3,856 3,702 4,045 4,097
- Cash increased 711 to 1,148 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,045 to 4,097 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,334 to -2,949 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -18 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,931 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-604 -554 -462 -697 -668
-448 51 92 -236 22
19 -0 0 0 12
- SSIA cumulative capital improved -697 to -668 billion rupiah with + 22 & + 12 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -649 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,665 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.21 X assets with a 382 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 18 billion rupiah (vs 22 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 90 X valuation. A 92 X valuation gives a 2% higher target price 374 rupiah.
