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Picture

SRTG paying capital

SRTG.jk Current 2,640 Target 2,847 + 8%

12/13/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 72,203%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -9% of market cap

Sales grew 514%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-99% 7,357% -81% 748% 514%
11 ; 783 ; 146 ; 1,236 ; 7,592
  • Sales grew 514% in the third quarter to 7,592 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -45% now.
  • This brings the average to 2,134% growth.
  • We predict average growth of -18% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,657 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
133,611% 1,380% 2,460% -21% 51%
14,057 ; 10,820 ; 3,573 ; -253 ; 3,840
  • The cash margin went from -21% to 51% profit from -253 to 3,840 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 967% now.
  • We use a 34% cash margin to predict a 552 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-310 ; -389 ; 501 ; 3,545 ; -268
-0 ; 0 ; -0 ; -0 ; -1
  • Free cashflow went from 3,545 to -269 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 847 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with lower sales gives 534 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
398 ; 462 ; 819 ; 2,070 ; 1,081
4,220 ; 5,137 ; 5,345 ; 4,071 ; 4,267
  • Cash declined 2,070 to 1,081 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 4,071 to 4,267 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,001 to -3,186 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -1,040 billion rupiah equity payout -792 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,091 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
10 ; -450 ; 145 ; 1,525 ; 728
-0 ; -0 ; 0 ; 829 ; 1
  • SRTG.jk paid 729 billion rupiah in the third quarter 728 billion rupiah liabilities 1 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,831 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 35,633 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.53 X assets with a 31 years payback & a 3% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,135 billion rupiah which means a 17 X valuation. A 18 X valuation gives a 8% higher target price 2,847 rupiah.
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