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SRIL less dull as cashflow gets back to break-even
SRIL Current 146 Target 117 -20%
Jun 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters
0% -60% -26% 90% -14%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-293% -188% -124% -164% -110%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-484, 36, 1, 6, 2
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,493 -1,541 -1,549 -1,624 -1,609
Capital raised flat , a -20% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-796 -796 -796 -799 -799
Jun 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters
0% -60% -26% 90% -14%
- Sales declined -14% in the first quarter to 181 million dollars -54% below our 394 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to -3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 206 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-293% -188% -124% -164% -110%
- The cash cost ratio went from -164% to -110% profit from -157 to -39 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -147% now.
- We use a lower -97% cost ratio to predict a -15 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-484, 36, 1, 6, 2
- Free cashflow went from 6 to 2 million dollars in the first quarter with 0 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 11 million dollars now.
- We assume the same 0 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 5 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,493 -1,541 -1,549 -1,624 -1,609
- Cash increased 9 to 11 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,633 to 1,620 million dollars so net cash improved -1,624 to -1,609 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -5 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -1,604 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised flat , a -20% lower target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-796 -796 -796 -799 -799
- SRIL 29 quarter capital raised was flat at -799 million dollars in the first quarter but will be -793 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 213 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.19 X assets with a 34 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 34 million dollars which means a 6 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a -20% lower target price 117 rupiah.