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SPTO sharp with a 7% yield forecast
SPTO Current 595 Target 896 + 51%
Jul 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-15% 16% 19% 2% -23%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -86% -84% -88% -89%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-18, 52, 151, 2, -19
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-721 -765 -667 -750 -782
Capital raised improved , a 51% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-759 -689 -630 -618 -605
Jul 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -23%
Last 5 quarters
-15% 16% 19% 2% -23%
- Sales declined seasonally -23% in the second quarter to 520 billion rupiah -17% below our 625 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 609 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -86% -84% -88% -89%
- The cash cost ratio went from -88% to -89% profit from 59 to 36 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -87% now.
- We use the average -87% cost ratio to predict a 59 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-18, 52, 151, 2, -19
- Free cashflow went seasonally negative from 2 to -19 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -6 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 47 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -6 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 71 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-721 -765 -667 -750 -782
- Cash declined 413 to 381 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,163 to 1,163 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -750 to -782 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -114 billion rupiah equity payout -171 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -566 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 51% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-759 -689 -630 -618 -605
- SPTO 22 quarter capital raised improved -618 to -605 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 13 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be -333 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,607 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 284 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 51% higher target price 896 rupiah.
