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SPTO looking sharp as sales rise to a record
SPTO Current 600 Target 1,027 + 71%
May 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -15% 16% 19% 2%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-87% -86% -86% -84% -88%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
150, -18, 52, 151, 2
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-753, -721, -765, -667, -750
Capital raised improved , a 71% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-759 -759 -689 -630 -618
May 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -15% 16% 19% 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the first quarter to 672 billion rupiah 5% above our 642 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 782 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-87% -86% -86% -84% -88%
- The cash cost ratio went from -84% to -88% profit from 80 to 59 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use the average -86% cost ratio to predict a 84 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
150, -18, 52, 151, 2
- Free cashflow went from 151 to 2 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -66 billion rupiah investment spending (but mostly bonds).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 4,678% billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -14 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 89 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-753, -721, -765, -667, -750
- Cash declined 423 to 413 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,090 to 1,163 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -667 to -750 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -62 billion rupiah equity payout -214 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -459 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 71% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-759 -759 -689 -630 -618
- SPTO 21 quarter capital raised improved -630 to -618 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -12 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -342 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,620 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 326 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 71% higher target price 1,027 rupiah.