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Picture
SPTO.jk Cashflow small positive

Current 545 Target 764 + 40%

1/2/2023
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 14%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 9% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 13% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -55% of market cap

Sales grew 21%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
16% 19% 2% -23% 21%
552 ; 656 ; 672 ; 520 ; 629 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 21% in the third quarter to 629 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 5% now.
  • This brings the average to 5% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 685 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
14% 16% 12% 11% 13%
45 ; 80 ; 59 ; 36 ; 55 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 11% to 13% profit from 36 to 55 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 13% now.
  • We use a 13% cash margin to predict a 65 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow small positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
41 ; 194 ; 68 ; -13 ; 48 billion rupiah
11 ; -43 ; -66 ; -6 ; -46 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -19 to 2 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -46 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 34 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -46 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 43 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
331 ; 423 ; 413 ; 381 ; 277 billion rupiah
1,096 ; 1,090 ; 1,163 ; 1,163 ; 1,087 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 381 to 277 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 1,163 to 1,087 billion rupiah so net cash was down -782 to -810 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -172 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -638 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
23 ; 12 ; 12 ; 13 ; 14 billion rupiah
47 ; 48 ; 0 ; 0 ; 92 billion rupiah
  • SPTO.jk paid 106 billion rupiah in the third quarter 14 billion rupiah liabilities 92 billion rupiah equity, will pay 172 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 1,472 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.45 X assets with a 18 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 172 billion rupiah which means a 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 764 rupiah.
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